TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-11.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Pistons, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,424
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,282

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,424 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa38a…821dbacked Cavaliers17c1,518$258 inWon+$1,259.9493148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Pistons78c1,021$798 inLost-$797.981,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers20c839.31$167 inWon+$672.428,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6303…9556backed Pistons80c562.84$450 inLost-$45018853.2%100 W · 88 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Cavaliers20c503.79$103 inWon+$401.1866352.6%349 W · 314 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Pistons74c446.01$330 inLost-$33069049.4%341 W · 349 L-30.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23f9…3c2dbacked Cavaliers26c400$104 inWon+$29618643.5%81 W · 105 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde3d…6b1fbacked Cavaliers26c384.62$100 inWon+$284.625332.1%17 W · 36 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x750c…d430backed Pistons74c381.08$282 inLost-$28211258.9%66 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Cavaliers26c379.99$99 inWon+$281.1962051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…4f6dbacked Cavaliers42c346.86$146 inWon+$201.184746.8%22 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x61a8…519dbacked Pistons62c316.84$196 inLost-$196.444161%25 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bf8…03b2backed Cavaliers30c309.99$94 inWon+$216.1927549.5%136 W · 139 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53cd…11b3backed Cavaliers38c300$114 inWon+$1869139.6%36 W · 55 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7677…37c0backed Cavaliers26c286.95$75 inWon+$212.3414148.2%68 W · 73 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4e0…ffbebacked Pistons61c175.92$107 inLost-$107.313246.9%15 W · 17 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Cavaliers41c167.76$69 inWon+$98.9155251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Pistons74c135.14$100 inLost-$10036453%193 W · 171 L-17.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Cavaliers28c107.14$30 inWon+$77.1436248.1%174 W · 188 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6cf…1025backed Cavaliers28c105.79$30 inWon+$76.174744.7%21 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Cavaliers26c86.59$23 inWon+$64.071,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc392…595dbacked Cavaliers38c78.46$30 inWon+$48.4640548.4%196 W · 209 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Pistons54c60.45$33 inLost-$32.6469848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Pistons72c54.2$39 inLost-$38.9664948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Pistons50c40$20 inLost-$201,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf09d…d23fbacked Pistons75c40$30 inLost-$3010651.9%55 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Cavaliers26c40$10 inWon+$29.696956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbcc…edc9backed Pistons74c28.65$21 inLost-$21.246348.4%224 W · 239 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a5d…e049backed Pistons69c21.74$15 inLost-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c57…8216backed Pistons75c20$15 inLost-$15450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.