NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29cce6182ec5a219fcda03cd60f8f40c90290604e205478ccdf232f7fa0194d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Cavaliers, Pistons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe0a…4a63backed Pistons | 24c | 3,276$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,489.76 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked Pistons | 24c | 3,065$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,329.78 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b4…ca9bbacked Pistons | 22c | 2,994$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,335.4 | 442 | 52.3%231 W · 211 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Cavaliers | 78c | 2,439$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 145 | 56.6%82 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Cavaliers | 76c | 2,252$1,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,706.5 | 663 | 52.6%349 W · 314 L | +30.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 77c | 1,730$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.21 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16e…c3c7backed Pistons | 24c | 822.67$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.23 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2768…2e81backed Pistons | 25c | 771.06$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.07 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Pistons | 13c | 700$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cavaliers | 76c | 617.6$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.22 | 521 | 50.9%265 W · 256 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Pistons | 14c | 552.9$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.53 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Pistons | 25c | 395.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.98 | 649 | 48.2%313 W · 336 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695d…60d5backed Cavaliers | 78c | 348.55$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.87 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +27%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Pistons | 17c | 315.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.59 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…41cabacked Pistons | 26c | 257.92$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.92 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…dfa0backed Pistons | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +368.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Pistons | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Pistons | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 262 | 33.6%88 W · 174 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Cavaliers | 76c | 197.36$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 141 | 48.2%68 W · 73 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…d31abacked Pistons | 8c | 134.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.98 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Pistons | 76c | 130.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 611 | 51.4%314 W · 297 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…5abfbacked Cavaliers | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…9ce4backed Pistons | 23c | 112.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 199 | 52.3%104 W · 95 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Cavaliers | 76c | 105.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 160 | 48.8%78 W · 82 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…fc59backed Pistons | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 135 | 39.3%53 W · 82 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09d…d23fbacked Cavaliers | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Pistons | 17c | 96.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.27 | 137 | 47.4%65 W · 72 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Cavaliers | 76c | 91.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 255 | 54.5%139 W · 116 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Cavaliers | 76c | 86.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 202 | 40.1%81 W · 121 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Cavaliers | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cavaliers | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 424 | 34.4%146 W · 278 L | -19.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Cavaliers | 77c | 43.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Cavaliers | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 405 | 48.4%196 W · 209 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Cavaliers | 77c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 186 | 53.2%99 W · 87 L | +9.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ed…041bbacked Cavaliers | 75c | 35.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Cavaliers | 80c | 34.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 193 | 60.1%116 W · 77 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Cavaliers | 76c | 26.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea97…a471backed Pistons | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x422f…da1abacked Cavaliers | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Cavaliers | 77c | 16.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Cavaliers | 77c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Pistons won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Cavaliers vs. PistonsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 102.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 103.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 207.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 210.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5Over won
- Dean Wade: Points O/U 0.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Duncan Robinson: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Duncan Robinson: Points O/U 2.5No won
- Duncan Robinson: Rebounds O/U 0.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-14.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Cavaliers won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 17.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.