NBA · resolved market
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28203e67185f380d9daaa754e25dfb011778a7132a2e62d8ed312998419a1ce0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 48c | 4,066$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,122.04 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb56…2492backed Yes | 56c | 3,364$1,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,871.21 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Yes | 56c | 2,692$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 79 | 63.3%50 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked No | 44c | 1,749$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.33 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 42c | 1,221$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.44 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed Yes | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.99 | 197 | 41.6%82 W · 115 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6d…71b4backed No | 45c | 410.02$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.51 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…5431backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 224 | 67.9%152 W · 72 L | +13.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 45c | 399.99$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Yes | 55c | 345.45$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 45c | 332.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.15 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Yes | 50c | 280$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…1b2fbacked Yes | 52c | 248.17$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…9805backed Yes | 59c | 165.85$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.35 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd11d…5656backed Yes | 51c | 153.96$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -10.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c9…8803backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +8.2wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 45c | 117.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked No | 45c | 114$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 45c | 113.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 44c | 104.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked No | 48c | 100.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 400 | 53.5%214 W · 186 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 44c | 90.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed Yes | 56c | 90.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed No | 45c | 83.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…a001backed No | 51c | 79.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2040…70f4backed Yes | 50c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5132…61a7backed Yes | 56c | 75.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 45c | 67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 447 | 47%210 W · 237 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5282…82fcbacked Yes | 55c | 67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…2dbbbacked No | 46c | 65.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c43…31c1backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 120 | 44.2%53 W · 67 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72a9…44d3backed Yes | 58c | 59.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 284 | 55.3%157 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed No | 45c | 58.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 294 | 49.7%146 W · 148 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…9cfabacked Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed No | 46c | 43.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…a84abacked Yes | 55c | 41.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Yes | 47c | 39.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…7873backed Yes | 56c | 35.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed No | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18af…bb06backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Pistons won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Cavaliers vs. PistonsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 102.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 103.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 207.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 210.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5Over won
- Dean Wade: Points O/U 0.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Duncan Robinson: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Duncan Robinson: Points O/U 2.5No won
- Duncan Robinson: Rebounds O/U 0.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-14.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Cavaliers won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 17.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.