CS2 · resolved market
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44fafad1895c6a1b6327c040fac61020f3edbc36e276794af1ff0c0fdf55059a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cf7…294abacked No | 40c | 2,500$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,504.94 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked No | 43c | 2,433$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,397.1 | 1,621 | 44.8%726 W · 895 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked No | 43c | 1,122$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.2 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3a…5998backed Yes | 58c | 944.15$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.59 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…cb2abacked Yes | 47c | 708.51$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…e458backed Yes | 60c | 684.76$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 52c | 592.21$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.61 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…a430backed No | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 39cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…971abacked Yes | 59c | 424.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 390.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 44c | 370$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 61c | 349.99$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed No | 36c | 338.74$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.79 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 57c | 326.69$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.16 | 2,309 | 45.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L | -62.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 36c | 289.42$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.91 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…2913backed Yes | 60c | 285$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc29…f1bbbacked Yes | 46c | 272.74$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf076…4079backed Yes | 48c | 261$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 61c | 250.82$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 62c | 230$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.75 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…3b45backed No | 45c | 222$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 16c | 213$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 75 | 9.3%7 W · 68 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 45c | 207.46$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.36 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 61c | 200$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2915…6cdbbacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe41c…afabbacked No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 496 | 51.2%254 W · 242 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 45c | 188.9$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 43c | 166.77$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.06 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 52c | 153.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da9…ec6fbacked Yes | 60c | 136.37$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3988…7ae9backed Yes | 46c | 128.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed No | 49c | 125.18$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 60c | 120$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 60c | 120$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…4829backed Yes | 51c | 105$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…60d2backed No | 46c | 104.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 194 | 23.7%46 W · 148 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…d714backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 317 | 31.9%101 W · 216 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd862…f135backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d81…90a0backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Yes | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 132 | 40.9%54 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 74.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -9.5wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x683b…c863backed No | 41c | 74.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 47c | 62.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 2,467 | 24.6%606 W · 1,861 L | -318.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 43c | 61.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes | 47c | 49.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed No | 47c | 49.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 818 | 43.2%353 W · 465 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked Yes | 49c | 48.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 49c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…e9d8backed Yes | 64c | 44.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4a…3b84backed Yes | 52c | 40.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 140 | 42.1%59 W · 81 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 63c | 39.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…fae7backed Yes | 58c | 36.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 54c | 35.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6abd…3297backed No | 49c | 35.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc712…9e96backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7a…dc52backed Yes | 58c | 29.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d96…6b5ebacked Yes | 58c | 27.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…7c9bbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a70…3fc8backed Yes | 62c | 19.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 57c | 17.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -58%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?this page
- Will Astralis reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?No won
- Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?No won
- Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?Yes won
- Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?No won
- Will GamerLegion reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?No won
- Will MOUZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?No won
- Will Natus Vincere reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?No won
- Will PARIVISION reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?No won
- Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?No won
- Will The MongolZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.