TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 16.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,179
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,277

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,179 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf887…db68backed Yes60c250.25$150 inWon+$100.25616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick57cpaid-72.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No40c226.38$91 inLost-$90.5579650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf268…ab74backed No44c153.68$68 inLost-$67.623151.6%16 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a6e…9bc5backed Yes56c126.95$71 inWon+$55.868354.2%45 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No44c121.91$54 inLost-$53.6443752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0c…5292backed No48c104.17$50 inLost-$507821.8%17 W · 61 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Yes52c104.17$54 inWon+$5052242.7%223 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4642…21d3backed Yes56c100$56 inWon+$4413555.6%75 W · 60 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No40c93.33$37 inLost-$37.3385449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes60c83.33$50 inWon+$33.3330055.7%167 W · 133 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked No45c81.32$37 inLost-$36.971449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf060…fc59backed Yes54c49.98$27 inWon+$22.9913539.3%53 W · 82 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c0…e44bbacked Yes55c45$25 inWon+$20.257443.2%32 W · 42 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+8.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7a1…7c9dbacked Yes56c40$22 inWon+$17.613764.2%88 W · 49 L+15.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+22.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No41c38.48$16 inLost-$15.7856050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9078…f1d7backed Yes59c33.9$20 inWon+$13.91258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.