NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 213.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f44e394bbc7e582ed849172d278bf6e59d7dbf41103cbb921c9579ae7c84ae0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c12…487dbacked Under | 40c | 4,747$1,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,907 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 24c | 3,284$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.76 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 9c | 2,482$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.35 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7805…1baebacked Over | 78c | 1,500$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.32 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 688 | 38.5%265 W · 423 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 37c | 826.08$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.5 | 663 | 52.6%349 W · 314 L | +30.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 64c | 778.82$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.82 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3c…9320backed Over | 63c | 634.92$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.92 | 253 | 60.1%152 W · 101 L | +26.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e1…06bbbacked Over | 65c | 611.93$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.93 | 137 | 57.7%79 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Over | 63c | 601.94$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.94 | 524 | 61.6%323 W · 201 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 241 | 59.8%144 W · 97 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 77c | 467.7$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.98 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 60c | 441.2$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.48 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 36c | 356.73$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.33 | 211 | 47.4%100 W · 111 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 20c | 341.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 21c | 325.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 202 | 47.5%96 W · 106 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 23c | 297.04$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Under | 37c | 270.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 114 | 37.7%43 W · 71 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 32c | 270.42$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4642…21d3backed Over | 64c | 199.98$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +11.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 23c | 199.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…28dabacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Over | 63c | 155.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 63c | 142$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Under | 18c | 125$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Under | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…0bb0backed Under | 17c | 99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 355 | 32.4%115 W · 240 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 36c | 97.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 292 | 43.8%128 W · 164 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed Over | 78c | 94.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 58c | 93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 36c | 91.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9608…8cf3backed Under | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e90…a79ebacked Over | 70c | 79.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…0df5backed Under | 37c | 77.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3428…61e2backed Under | 14c | 76.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c4…a7ffbacked Over | 63c | 69.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8a…1cb9backed Over | 65c | 63.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…2b4fbacked Over | 65c | 61.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 63c | 59.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc059…a1edbacked Over | 64c | 54.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 61c | 53.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 36c | 51.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Over | 63c | 50.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 187 | 35.8%67 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 65c | 49.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 35c | 41.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Over | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 36c | 32.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 215 | 74.4%160 W · 55 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228e…08efbacked Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…99eebacked Over | 62c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…08d2backed Under | 37c | 26.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10da…6043backed Over | 65c | 18.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…ddc7backed Over | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 63c | 15.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 213.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-12.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-15.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. TimberwolvesSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 210.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 219.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: Odd/Even ScoreEven won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.