NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d719a91b8c17a54f8d4fed38a8c17b4d6655584d99e5bbc04fc83a100efe8b9

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: May 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $76,970
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $66,006

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,970 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc308…7b09backed Under	0c	11,108$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.97	312	22.1%69 W · 243 L	+14.9wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+79.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf70f…3c97backed Under	51c	8,469$4,346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,345.95	42	76.2%32 W · 10 L	+5.6wins	+0.13per pick	63cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Over	49c	5,821$2,850 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,971.2	698	48.6%339 W · 359 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Under	5c	5,498$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	-5.2wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0xb184…b6c6backed Over	35c	2,824$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,823.87	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-3.9wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-26%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	59c	2,729$1,614 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,114.75	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Under	50c	2,310$1,158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,158.21	824	42.2%348 W · 476 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under	3c	2,179$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.98	649	48.2%313 W · 336 L	-3.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1101…dfd5backed Under	11c	1,651$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.43	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under	59c	1,525$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	954	52.3%499 W · 455 L	-17.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over	49c	1,499$742 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$757.54	552	51.3%283 W · 269 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fce…c02abacked Under	63c	1,293$814 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$814.36	55	40%22 W · 33 L	+5.3wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	+54.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	48c	1,240$595 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$644.71	1,282	43.4%557 W · 725 L	-51.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f56…a330backed Under	45c	1,156$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	-5.8wins	-0.15per pick	60cpaid	-28%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Over	49c	1,031$502 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$528.95	857	42.6%365 W · 492 L	-15.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Over	60c	1,008$602 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$406.52	241	59.8%144 W · 97 L	+9.8wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	38c	1,000$380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$620	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Under	52c	1,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	313	54.3%170 W · 143 L	+4.8wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Under	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	115	58.3%67 W · 48 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+88.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Over	44c	682.54$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$382.54	524	61.6%323 W · 201 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15ab…675ebacked Under	59c	674.58$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$397.9	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	19c	610.02$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.79	521	50.9%265 W · 256 L	+18.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe768…b331backed Under	67c	600$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402	398	64.3%256 W · 142 L	+33.7wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb600…4440backed Under	14c	559.77$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.37	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+7.5wins	+0.20per pick	38cpaid	+67.4%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb628…fd2bbacked Under	54c	544.44$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294	118	73.7%87 W · 31 L	+7.4wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Under	25c	513$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.96	499	38.9%194 W · 305 L	-23.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under	63c	489.81$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.58	796	50.9%405 W · 391 L	+63.2wins	+0.08per pick	43cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3ead…4cb2backed Under	62c	450.32$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.2	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	-3.6wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Over	68c	336$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.72	195	48.2%94 W · 101 L	+12.4wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x11e1…8d38backed Under	23c	268.49$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	60	51.7%31 W · 29 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over	71c	249.76$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.64	766	53.5%410 W · 356 L	+65.5wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9856…8d02backed Under	58c	238.12$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.11	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+3.3wins	+0.11per pick	47cpaid	+44.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Under	67c	223.88$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	1,393	48.3%673 W · 720 L	+19.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over	67c	168.49$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.13	1,317	47.8%629 W · 688 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Over	48c	166.05$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.35	319	53%169 W · 150 L	+11.5wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Under	12c	165.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.96	355	32.4%115 W · 240 L	-12.7wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-17%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2542…7821backed Under	63c	159.12$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cbf…70a1backed Under	64c	154.81$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	66	34.8%23 W · 43 L	-5.0wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over	45c	123$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.65	1,048	51.7%542 W · 506 L	+7.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed Under	52c	115.38$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	427	40.3%172 W · 255 L	-11.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbbc…3122backed Under	18c	108.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	79	53.2%42 W · 37 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c94…f9f4backed Under	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	80	43.8%35 W · 45 L	-9.9wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-23%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7157…7ba4backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	232	46.1%107 W · 125 L	+7.1wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	31c	100$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69	1,901	48.7%925 W · 976 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed Under	61c	95.08$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	561	54.5%306 W · 255 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Under	22c	90.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	403	44.4%179 W · 224 L	-23.9wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa965…7f73backed Over	49c	90$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.9	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+15%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf3c…bec3backed Under	50c	81.1$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.55	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Over	53c	81$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.43	931	48.4%451 W · 480 L	+34.1wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Under	47c	74.83$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.16	125	48%60 W · 65 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Under	51c	73.08$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	463	46.4%215 W · 248 L	-16.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bc4…0fd1backed Under	61c	72.64$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.31	53	47.2%25 W · 28 L	-4.4wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under	61c	70$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3910…e694backed Under	54c	65.16$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.27per pick	60cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e3e…a78abacked Under	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	142	37.3%53 W · 89 L	-11.7wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc392…595dbacked Over	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	405	48.4%196 W · 209 L	+8.9wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over	43c	60$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.2	890	48.8%434 W · 456 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2978…b511backed Over	45c	51.24$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.24	78	35.9%28 W · 50 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa543…9a38backed Under	57c	50$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	125	39.2%49 W · 76 L	-8.1wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b67…f13cbacked Under	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	54	57.4%31 W · 23 L	+4.2wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Under	69c	47.68$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.9	202	40.1%81 W · 121 L	-12.4wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under	48c	47.19$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.72	148	60.1%89 W · 59 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0881…356abacked Over	42c	45.24$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.24	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+2.5wins	+0.13per pick	45cpaid	+34.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c0e…8177backed Under	59c	44.2$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	206	50.5%104 W · 102 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d4…523cbacked Over	31c	43$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.67	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xee11…19a9backed Over	58c	41.66$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.5	79	49.4%39 W · 40 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b7a…52c9backed Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54ab…e652backed Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	-4.6wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Over	49c	38.2$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.48	592	55.4%328 W · 264 L	+23.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under	51c	38.2$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.48	688	38.5%265 W · 423 L	-26.5wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-14%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0ad…bce9backed Under	59c	37.29$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	46	43.5%20 W · 26 L	-6.9wins	-0.15per pick	58cpaid	-26%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Over	68c	35.36$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.45	193	60.1%116 W · 77 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1c7…6621backed Under	63c	31.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.6wins	-0.24per pick	42cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x83c4…4c57backed Under	52c	31.04$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.14	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa516…235cbacked Over	49c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda6f…54b2backed Under	60c	23.1$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.78	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3f5…e0c9backed Under	65c	21.69$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.15	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-2.6wins	-0.18per pick	44cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x086c…4932backed Under	72c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	50	56%28 W · 22 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Under	75c	16.2$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.16	176	51.7%91 W · 85 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4113…9514backed Under	74c	14.95$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.03	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.74per pick	74cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5this page
1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 25.5No won
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
Julius Randle: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Julius Randle: Points O/U 16.5No won
Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Spread: Spurs (-12.5)Spurs won
Spread: Spurs (-15.5)Spurs won
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Spurs won
Spurs vs. TimberwolvesSpurs won
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 210.5Over won
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 213.5Over won
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5Over won
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5Over won
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 219.5Over won
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5Over won
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Over won
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: Odd/Even ScoreEven won
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5No won
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event