NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x914c9f37723a0a7d9ea68e4a74038b792767f47e29b0fa457f979f5b2b6aa5a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Spurs, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Timberwolves | 41c | 5,741$2,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,353.78 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…b7acbacked Spurs | 59c | 4,006$2,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640.74 | 200 | 57%114 W · 86 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Spurs | 60c | 3,235$1,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Spurs | 61c | 2,016$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.9 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…4004backed Spurs | 60c | 1,966$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.68 | 219 | 57.1%125 W · 94 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Timberwolves | 39c | 1,963$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.57 | 286 | 43%123 W · 163 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves | 40c | 1,937$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.68 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Spurs | 59c | 1,140$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.33 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Spurs | 60c | 1,039$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.33 | 649 | 48.2%313 W · 336 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Timberwolves | 39c | 932.72$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.76 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Timberwolves | 40c | 929.93$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.97 | 663 | 52.6%349 W · 314 L | +30.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Timberwolves | 40c | 776.42$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.57 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Timberwolves | 40c | 722.25$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.13 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…519dbacked Spurs | 61c | 647.54$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.54 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 25c | 579.7$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.96 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…a6aabacked Spurs | 61c | 492.06$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.06 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7e…8a0fbacked Timberwolves | 41c | 489.76$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.8 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddad…bce1backed Timberwolves | 41c | 365.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 216 | 57.9%125 W · 91 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…bea8backed Spurs | 72c | 347.89$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.89 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Timberwolves | 11c | 336$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Timberwolves | 40c | 301.46$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.46 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Spurs | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…cfb1backed Spurs | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Timberwolves | 40c | 299.85$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Timberwolves | 40c | 280$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 620 | 51.1%317 W · 303 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Timberwolves | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 535 | 39.6%212 W · 323 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Timberwolves | 41c | 240$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Timberwolves | 40c | 204.54$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…ca29backed Timberwolves | 42c | 196.27$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.76 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…ebe7backed Spurs | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…6901backed Spurs | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Timberwolves | 39c | 158.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x750c…d430backed Spurs | 62c | 157.28$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…1a8dbacked Spurs | 59c | 151.58$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd479…1920backed Spurs | 67c | 151.28$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x819d…8d4cbacked Timberwolves | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Spurs | 60c | 132.77$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Timberwolves | 30c | 120.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 538 | 42%226 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Timberwolves | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Spurs | 65c | 112.86$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 894 | 44.4%397 W · 497 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Timberwolves | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 305 | 51.5%157 W · 148 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Timberwolves | 41c | 99.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Timberwolves | 41c | 93.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 521 | 50.9%265 W · 256 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Spurs | 58c | 85.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 552 | 51.3%283 W · 269 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Timberwolves | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Timberwolves | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 405 | 48.4%196 W · 209 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Timberwolves | 40c | 66.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 186 | 53.2%99 W · 87 L | +9.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Spurs | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Timberwolves | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Timberwolves | 41c | 49.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Timberwolves | 41c | 49.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Timberwolves | 39c | 43.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c39…d10bbacked Timberwolves | 29c | 42.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Spurs | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 332 | 49.7%165 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Timberwolves | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a5…f52ebacked Spurs | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Spurs | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed Spurs | 61c | 32.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 215 | 74.4%160 W · 55 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b62…1253backed Spurs | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 207 | 56%116 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e5…1dd0backed Spurs | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 416 | 54.8%228 W · 188 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64dc…4d4fbacked Spurs | 60c | 24.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfc…8eb3backed Spurs | 60c | 20.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd97…96fabacked Spurs | 59c | 18.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…d651backed Spurs | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 131 | 51.9%68 W · 63 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-12.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-15.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. TimberwolvesSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 210.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 219.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: Odd/Even ScoreEven won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.