TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Spursof Spurs, Timberwolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,991
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,072

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,991 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9c76…c926backed Timberwolves48c10,100$4,898 inLost-$4,898.232,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Spurs51c8,272$4,243 inWon+$4,029.332846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Spurs51c7,481$3,810 inWon+$3,670.4218651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves49c1,145$559 inLost-$558.544,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Timberwolves47c1,031$480 inLost-$479.986445.3%29 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Timberwolves48c894.67$429 inLost-$429.442,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Timberwolves50c742.68$371 inLost-$371.3413161.8%81 W · 50 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+16.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Timberwolves51c600$306 inLost-$30617551.4%90 W · 85 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Spurs50c400$200 inWon+$2001,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Timberwolves49c306.97$150 inLost-$150.4249852.6%262 W · 236 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed Timberwolves51c200$101 inLost-$10118853.7%101 W · 87 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca85…7453backed Spurs50c200$100 inWon+$1006346%29 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2df…ca29backed Timberwolves50c190.38$95 inLost-$95.1917247.7%82 W · 90 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95a3…cc1bbacked Timberwolves50c188.94$95 inLost-$95.28728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Spurs51c179.83$92 inWon+$87.776653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa538…12c3backed Spurs50c166$83 inWon+$832975.9%22 W · 7 L+7.1wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x085b…ab9fbacked Timberwolves45c110.4$50 inLost-$49.689941.4%41 W · 58 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dbd…4476backed Spurs52c105.77$55 inWon+$50.775360.4%32 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Spurs51c103.92$53 inWon+$50.9226545.3%120 W · 145 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24f1…6a07backed Spurs52c100.48$52 inWon+$48.231080%8 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+24.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Timberwolves50c100$50 inLost-$5040344.4%179 W · 224 L-23.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0bc4…0fd1backed Timberwolves50c60$30 inLost-$305347.2%25 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf6a1…5a4fbacked Timberwolves50c48.24$24 inLost-$24.252347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x970f…f167backed Timberwolves46c47.83$22 inLost-$225556.4%31 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x623a…5144backed Timberwolves45c44.44$20 inLost-$203938.5%15 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b62…1253backed Spurs51c40$20 inWon+$19.620756%116 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec7…ed98backed Timberwolves51c39.22$20 inLost-$201540%6 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Timberwolves51c38$19 inLost-$19.3818653.2%99 W · 87 L+9.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93dc…3728backed Spurs51c29.41$15 inWon+$14.417444.6%33 W · 41 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb1…ab41backed Spurs52c23.08$12 inWon+$11.08875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+53.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd68f…6fdfbacked Timberwolves50c22$11 inLost-$114936.7%18 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2d…8a1dbacked Spurs55c20$11 inWon+$97100%7 W · 0 L+3.3wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+141.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7287…b38ebacked Spurs52c19.52$10 inWon+$9.37850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.