NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x723cd4d080b8c9fdfc24b3f2b56bafca428187c8ce65043ab7b0af6fdb05c7c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Spurs, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs | 63c | 5,937$3,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,178.77 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Timberwolves | 37c | 5,416$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.97 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…48a6backed Spurs | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Spurs | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 626 | 52.2%327 W · 299 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…17bdbacked Timberwolves | 42c | 456.24$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.62 | 124 | 34.7%43 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Timberwolves | 36c | 353.35$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.57 | 218 | 48.2%105 W · 113 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…519dbacked Spurs | 59c | 331.53$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.93 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4d…0486backed Timberwolves | 21c | 325.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe193…cc85backed Spurs | 58c | 268.14$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.62 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed Spurs | 59c | 250.07$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.53 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Spurs | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33b…2372backed Spurs | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Spurs | 61c | 162.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Timberwolves | 22c | 100.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed Timberwolves | 30c | 89.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked Spurs | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 300 | 55.7%167 W · 133 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed Spurs | 58c | 71.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Spurs | 74c | 65.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbd…a3a4backed Timberwolves | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed Timberwolves | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…eee6backed Spurs | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Timberwolves | 24c | 49.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Spurs | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 249 | 36.9%92 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b62…1253backed Spurs | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 207 | 56%116 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb14c…5d15backed Timberwolves | 36c | 38.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Spurs | 56c | 37.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Spurs | 75c | 36.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Spurs | 61c | 34.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…aedfbacked Spurs | 59c | 30.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-12.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-15.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. TimberwolvesSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 210.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 219.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: Odd/Even ScoreEven won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.