NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4699bb6ab251374e05e8b11b3faae882d9c6056c9863ca29d6ad9c7548270fde

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: May 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $79,828
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $81,329

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,828 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd10c…0645backed Over	51c	15,771$8,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,770.85	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under	49c	7,034$3,427 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,426.53	698	48.6%339 W · 359 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Under	50c	5,000$2,519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,518.62	328	46.6%153 W · 175 L	-7.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Under	0c	4,821$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.57	312	22.1%69 W · 243 L	+14.9wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+79.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6204…0b06backed Over	45c	3,836$1,726 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,109.74	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	-5.1wins	-0.12per pick	47cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x52f9…ad24backed Under	55c	3,634$1,989 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,988.53	44	52.3%23 W · 21 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb184…b6c6backed Over	42c	2,748$1,150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,597.78	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-3.9wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-26%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	39c	2,685$1,059 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,059.15	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Under	11c	2,594$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.31	279	37.3%104 W · 175 L	+57.6wins	+0.21per pick	17cpaid	+187%equal weight	71+0.19 edge/pick
0xe9d3…079fbacked Under	60c	2,098$1,249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,249	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked Over	46c	1,891$870 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,021.31	127	41.7%53 W · 74 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under	50c	1,660$824 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$824.23	552	51.3%283 W · 269 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under	56c	1,659$926 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$925.6	796	50.9%405 W · 391 L	+63.2wins	+0.08per pick	43cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Under	47c	1,200$564 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$564	824	42.2%348 W · 476 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	50c	1,127$563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$562.58	1,282	43.4%557 W · 725 L	-51.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Under	45c	1,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	616	38.5%237 W · 379 L	-8.1wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under	43c	1,000$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430	170	52.4%89 W · 81 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under	50c	987.66$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.83	906	50.2%455 W · 451 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under	50c	987.66$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.83	637	46.6%297 W · 340 L	-16.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac7…3ef9backed Under	9c	925.33$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.28	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under	52c	838$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.76	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over	52c	769.69$401 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$368.96	649	48.2%313 W · 336 L	-3.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under	54c	555.55$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	469	59.1%277 W · 192 L	+28.6wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Over	51c	539$275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$263.56	931	48.4%451 W · 480 L	+34.1wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over	37c	411.17$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$259.04	688	38.5%265 W · 423 L	-26.5wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-14%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	954	52.3%499 W · 455 L	-17.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…896cbacked Under	52c	400$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208	79	44.3%35 W · 44 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Over	47c	394$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.82	629	48.6%306 W · 323 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	63c	377.96$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.12	1,633	41.2%672 W · 961 L	+26.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Over	53c	377.36$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.36	524	61.6%323 W · 201 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Over	50c	340$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170	241	59.8%144 W · 97 L	+9.8wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Under	51c	300$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	185	36.8%68 W · 117 L	-11.8wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under	54c	282.43$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.51	528	61.9%327 W · 201 L	+32.3wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under	39c	269.48$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	1,317	47.8%629 W · 688 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under	53c	251$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.03	320	45.3%145 W · 175 L	-7.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Under	61c	245.9$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	1,393	48.3%673 W · 720 L	+19.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dd7…28d2backed Under	48c	229.17$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	44	43.2%19 W · 25 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Under	55c	210$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.5	1,048	51.7%542 W · 506 L	+7.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb221…a639backed Over	58c	195.21$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.44	46	37%17 W · 29 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddc4…0270backed Under	53c	189.25$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	277	45.8%127 W · 150 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-13%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over	49c	189$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.38	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Over	46c	165.98$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.63	557	51.9%289 W · 268 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa11f…1252backed Over	46c	165.98$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.63	202	47.5%96 W · 106 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61d3…189abacked Over	46c	165.98$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.63	218	49.5%108 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3c2…5509backed Over	46c	165.98$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.63	184	44.6%82 W · 102 L	-11.9wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Under	49c	161.94$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.35	319	53%169 W · 150 L	+11.5wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Under	65c	142$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.92	612	53.1%325 W · 287 L	-20.0wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cbf…70a1backed Under	53c	141.51$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	66	34.8%23 W · 43 L	-5.0wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	50c	140$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	521	50.9%265 W · 256 L	+18.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	58c	131$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.98	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd053…307abacked Over	49c	122.45$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.45	82	52.4%43 W · 39 L	+7.0wins	+0.09per pick	44cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf5e…95e3backed Over	46c	121.72$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.73	210	46.2%97 W · 113 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under	65c	120.75$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.49	71	53.5%38 W · 33 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Under	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	-5.2wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0xfa4e…eadfbacked Over	51c	98.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.04	53	37.7%20 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Under	54c	70.32$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.72	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-5.6wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3893…8afbbacked Under	47c	64$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	56	64.3%36 W · 20 L	+9.5wins	+0.17per pick	47cpaid	+63.7%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Under	26c	61.72$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.97	335	56.7%190 W · 145 L	+26.4wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd57d…590ebacked Under	62c	61.25$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	135	60%81 W · 54 L	+9.2wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+10%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc392…595dbacked Over	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	405	48.4%196 W · 209 L	+8.9wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Under	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	403	44.4%179 W · 224 L	-23.9wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over	71c	59.98$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.69	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under	44c	59.09$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	454	45.4%206 W · 248 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under	62c	59.05$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.84	1,399	46.4%649 W · 750 L	-13.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3910…e694backed Under	53c	56.6$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.27per pick	60cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under	53c	53.11$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.15	255	54.5%139 W · 116 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda9…f624backed Under	62c	50.79$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.49	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Under	55c	50.28$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.65	890	48.8%434 W · 456 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Under	55c	39.62$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.79	219	53.4%117 W · 102 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Under	55c	39.22$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.57	592	55.4%328 W · 264 L	+23.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8874…ba49backed Under	59c	35.46$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.84	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3f5…e0c9backed Under	53c	27.7$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.62	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-2.6wins	-0.18per pick	44cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2bcf…c678backed Under	54c	27.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	107	61.7%66 W · 41 L	+8.7wins	+0.08per pick	54cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf58…2bf4backed Under	51c	25.11$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.92	194	45.9%89 W · 105 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81d7…32d8backed Over	52c	24.16$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.66	68	44.1%30 W · 38 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc6…0f52backed Under	66c	21.21$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	63	50.8%32 W · 31 L	-6.4wins	-0.10per pick	61cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x404f…f2a1backed Under	66c	20.46$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.47	54	57.4%31 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe743…ce0fbacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	52	34.6%18 W · 34 L	-8.5wins	-0.16per pick	51cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5this page
1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 25.5No won
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
Julius Randle: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Julius Randle: Points O/U 16.5No won
Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Spread: Spurs (-12.5)Spurs won
Spread: Spurs (-15.5)Spurs won
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Spurs won
Spurs vs. TimberwolvesSpurs won
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 210.5Over won
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 213.5Over won
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5Over won
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5Over won
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 219.5Over won
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5Over won
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Over won
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: Odd/Even ScoreEven won
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5No won
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event