Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0ae999b8add9dafc71fb52b7f181f18c13d45e0e493693bbaebf181bffc647b

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Türkiyeof Paraguay, Türkiye
Resolved: Jun 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $173,190
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $174,228

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,190 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Paraguay	13c	57,392$7,532 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,532.32	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Paraguay	8c	8,374$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630.29	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37ae…1002backed Paraguay	9c	7,553$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	249	17.7%44 W · 205 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca91…1907backed Paraguay	10c	3,352$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.8	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	30cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c1…caf8backed Paraguay	8c	2,419$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.53	45	26.7%12 W · 33 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Paraguay	8c	2,125$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	280	25%70 W · 210 L	-9.0wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60f6…a196backed Paraguay	1c	1,572$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.34	460	12.4%57 W · 403 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x587c…9c4ebacked Paraguay	10c	1,202$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.18	100	19%19 W · 81 L	-11.2wins	-0.11per pick	30cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8ac9…92d3backed Paraguay	9c	1,111$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	226	22.1%50 W · 176 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	+48.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Paraguay	20c	1,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	138	26.1%36 W · 102 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-21%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Paraguay	7c	999.99$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	1,075	45.2%486 W · 589 L	+41.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d49…7cc0backed Türkiye	79c	999.99$790 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210	128	62.5%80 W · 48 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c03…5670backed Paraguay	11c	909.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-28%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked Paraguay	8c	894$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.64	513	15.6%80 W · 433 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8325…19ccbacked Paraguay	14c	860$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.4	668	46.7%312 W · 356 L	+45.9wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Paraguay	8c	859.19$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.59	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x361b…74febacked Paraguay	21c	809.7$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.94	510	32.5%166 W · 344 L	-9.1wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf387…61c0backed Paraguay	16c	782$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.24	349	64.5%225 W · 124 L	+73.5wins	+0.21per pick	43cpaid	+123.1%equal weight	72+0.20 edge/pick
0x13e4…8b89backed Paraguay	27c	781.25$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.45	202	53.5%108 W · 94 L	+12.5wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Paraguay	10c	775.91$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.68	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Paraguay	20c	717.57$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.21	1,563	39.8%622 W · 941 L	-51.9wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f17…b55dbacked Paraguay	8c	688$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.04	121	45.5%55 W · 66 L	+9.0wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x095e…5062backed Paraguay	9c	550$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	88	33%29 W · 59 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Paraguay	7c	501.08$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.09	1,945	42.7%831 W · 1,114 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e1…99dbbacked Paraguay	7c	495$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.65	580	49.1%285 W · 295 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Paraguay	7c	420$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	1,873	48.4%906 W · 967 L	+14.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Paraguay	8c	400.04$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	1,005	44.3%445 W · 560 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2f5…24adbacked Paraguay	7c	358.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+4.3wins	+0.20per pick	51cpaid	+28%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Paraguay	12c	333$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.96	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Paraguay	9c	300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	331	20.8%69 W · 262 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b71…f840backed Türkiye	79c	300$237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63	128	29.7%38 W · 90 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Paraguay	14c	299.99$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	81	19.8%16 W · 65 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x092f…d9fdbacked Paraguay	13c	287.29$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	185	53%98 W · 87 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5960…6d42backed Paraguay	8c	254.2$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	185	48.1%89 W · 96 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9048…d351backed Paraguay	20c	250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	148	41.9%62 W · 86 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5519…f7e1backed Türkiye	80c	246$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.2	342	31.3%107 W · 235 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Paraguay	8c	243.26$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.46	354	24%85 W · 269 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Paraguay	7c	240$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	1,421	47.8%679 W · 742 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x264b…cf7fbacked Paraguay	21c	238.1$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	190	36.8%70 W · 120 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb966…6e44backed Paraguay	8c	236.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	34.9%15 W · 28 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Paraguay	8c	229$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.45	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9641…55d1backed Paraguay	9c	223.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	194	28.9%56 W · 138 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Paraguay	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	106	14.2%15 W · 91 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Paraguay	20c	197.44$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.76	1,354	38.9%527 W · 827 L	-55.8wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16d4…6e9bbacked Paraguay	9c	193.61$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.6	211	28%59 W · 152 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Paraguay	21c	190$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.9	657	37.4%246 W · 411 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ad…8dc6backed Paraguay	8c	179$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.32	73	32.9%24 W · 49 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked Paraguay	7c	175.1$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.12	455	36.9%168 W · 287 L	-26.9wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe620…03acbacked Paraguay	20c	175$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	170	45.9%78 W · 92 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Türkiye	80c	166.2$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.24	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9596…b805backed Paraguay	12c	163.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Paraguay	16c	152.49$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.65	399	32.6%130 W · 269 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Türkiye	79c	150$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb51…d5d1backed Paraguay	20c	140$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Paraguay	9c	138.78$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.49	436	35.8%156 W · 280 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Paraguay	9c	138.78$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.49	472	35%165 W · 307 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4029…05d3backed Paraguay	19c	136.84$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	66	19.7%13 W · 53 L	-8.1wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0d76…92b5backed Paraguay	20c	125$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	94	28.7%27 W · 67 L	+7.6wins	+0.08per pick	21cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1728…08f4backed Paraguay	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x156e…cf6fbacked Türkiye	80c	125$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	46	47.8%22 W · 24 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe83b…2153backed Paraguay	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	+3.2wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe182…9f09backed Paraguay	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	180	2.8%5 W · 175 L	-7.8wins	-0.04per pick	7cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1bc…7e33backed Paraguay	9c	111.12$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Paraguay	13c	104$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.03	257	19.1%49 W · 208 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07f1…3b8ebacked Türkiye	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	41	65.9%27 W · 14 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	61cpaid	+12%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Paraguay	22c	81.38$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.67	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Paraguay	19c	75$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.88	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb15…f4f8backed Paraguay	21c	72.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	67	41.8%28 W · 39 L	+3.2wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3fa…cdb2backed Paraguay	21c	70$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.35	66	56.1%37 W · 29 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Türkiye	68c	68.25$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.84	1,114	49.4%550 W · 564 L	+57.3wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Türkiye	75c	25.47$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.47	192	57.8%111 W · 81 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)this page
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5)Türkiye won
Spread: Paraguay (-3.5)Türkiye won
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)Paraguay won
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5)Paraguay won
Spread: Türkiye (-3.5)Paraguay won
Spread: Türkiye (-4.5)Paraguay won
Spread: Türkiye (-5.5)Paraguay won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5Over won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5Under won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5Under won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5Under won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5Under won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5Under won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5Under won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5Under won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5Under won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5Over won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5Under won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5Under won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5Under won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5Under won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event