Fifa International · resolved market
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39cf6a848b82ce949b5dfb35758bc2419baea8542ccbc5a2f5bd52d5dae4138e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2393…d54dbacked Over | 18c | 7,750$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,394.99 | 176 | 25%44 W · 132 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 20c | 3,941$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.47 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…2e34backed Over | 19c | 2,567$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 274 | 33.9%93 W · 181 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 11c | 2,494$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.46 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeff…e9abbacked Over | 17c | 1,157$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb048…7f07backed Over | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x625a…2dd5backed Over | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 9c | 786.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 657 | 37.4%246 W · 411 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 4c | 783.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1c…bd78backed Over | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 35.2%50 W · 92 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4372…6a96backed Over | 24c | 500$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.29 | 269 | 21.6%58 W · 211 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de6…d677backed Over | 21c | 478.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 80c | 312$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 80c | 312$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 6c | 300.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 18c | 277.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 580 | 29.5%171 W · 409 L | -19.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351d…8574backed Over | 14c | 249.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…48b9backed Over | 21c | 214.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7393…751abacked Over | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 200 | 3%6 W · 194 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 19c | 196.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…612abacked Over | 19c | 190.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6189…d6ebbacked Over | 19c | 175$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Over | 12c | 141$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 19c | 130.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 19c | 129$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,388 | 15.1%210 W · 1,178 L | -16.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…9f09backed Over | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 180 | 2.8%5 W · 175 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x835b…0e81backed Over | 19c | 103.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 20c | 102.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…eb44backed Over | 19c | 69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 303 | 44.2%134 W · 169 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…2161backed Over | 19c | 65.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 145 | 26.2%38 W · 107 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…c4c7backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Under | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 414 | 44.9%186 W · 228 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 379 | 50.1%190 W · 189 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)Türkiye won
- Spread: Paraguay (-2.5)Türkiye won
- Spread: Paraguay (-3.5)Türkiye won
- Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Türkiye (-2.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Türkiye (-3.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Türkiye (-4.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Türkiye (-5.5)Paraguay won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5Over won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5Over won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.