Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x837fb8c35203389843ed42dbfaaa43e7bc76855bc97b27f7d2756737802612ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paraguayof Türkiye, Paraguay
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $162,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Türkiye | 5c | 36,926$1,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.51 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Türkiye | 6c | 11,680$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.89 | 753 | 35.6%268 W · 485 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Türkiye | 10c | 11,667$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.89 | 1,985 | 32.5%645 W · 1,340 L | -47.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Türkiye | 9c | 5,843$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.84 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Türkiye | 4c | 4,662$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.67 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed Türkiye | 6c | 3,375$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.35 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -69%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Türkiye | 9c | 3,117$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.49 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Türkiye | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 363 | 49.3%179 W · 184 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Türkiye | 4c | 1,734$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 175 | 35.4%62 W · 113 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd582…4561backed Türkiye | 6c | 1,695$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Türkiye | 4c | 1,288$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…97cfbacked Türkiye | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 341 | 22.3%76 W · 265 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f84…be62backed Türkiye | 9c | 1,244$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce37…a2d6backed Türkiye | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…d54dbacked Türkiye | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 176 | 25%44 W · 132 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Türkiye | 4c | 997$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…a97bbacked Türkiye | 9c | 715$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Türkiye | 10c | 611.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 608 | 21.9%133 W · 475 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Türkiye | 5c | 599.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Türkiye | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 451 | 20.6%93 W · 358 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b55…3620backed Türkiye | 9c | 550$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Türkiye | 9c | 544.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61f…35a6backed Türkiye | 8c | 499.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 318 | 42.5%135 W · 183 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Türkiye | 6c | 478$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 257 | 19.1%49 W · 208 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fb…9b84backed Türkiye | 9c | 477$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 152 | 35.5%54 W · 98 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Türkiye | 3c | 453.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3705…9677backed Türkiye | 10c | 428.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e89…3e0abacked Türkiye | 2c | 417.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 267 | 16.1%43 W · 224 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Türkiye | 3c | 413.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Türkiye | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Türkiye | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 695 | 34.8%242 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd68d…56a5backed Türkiye | 10c | 304$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8503…4c75backed Türkiye | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Türkiye | 5c | 249$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 120 | 36.7%44 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Türkiye | 7c | 234.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 981 | 34.8%341 W · 640 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Türkiye | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,388 | 15.1%210 W · 1,178 L | -16.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…3c9dbacked Türkiye | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71eb…4c2dbacked Türkiye | 9c | 212.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1e…0a03backed Türkiye | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -96.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7393…751abacked Türkiye | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 200 | 3%6 W · 194 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Türkiye | 6c | 178.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a56…478abacked Türkiye | 9c | 168.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…4005backed Türkiye | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…9f09backed Türkiye | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 180 | 2.8%5 W · 175 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…3855backed Türkiye | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 103 | 28.2%29 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…e3b2backed Türkiye | 10c | 101.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Türkiye (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)Türkiye won
- Spread: Paraguay (-2.5)Türkiye won
- Spread: Paraguay (-3.5)Türkiye won
- Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Türkiye (-3.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Türkiye (-4.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Türkiye (-5.5)Paraguay won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5Over won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5Over won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.