TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$128,707
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$122,142

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,707 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8ec6…d9edbacked Over4c30,000$1,080 inLost-$1,079.9921631%67 W · 149 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Over1c9,999$100 inLost-$99.995911.9%7 W · 52 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+220.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9aa7…e3d9backed Over1c7,485$41 inLost-$41.07968.3%8 W · 88 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+73.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x627b…285bbacked Over1c5,000$50 inLost-$5012844.5%57 W · 71 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+18.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Over2c3,618$66 inLost-$66.3346223.2%107 W · 355 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d86…52acbacked Over2c2,500$50 inLost-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+335.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc18a…7c09backed Over1c2,254$23 inLost-$22.547810.5%4 W · 777 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-69.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc53c…bf59backed Over2c1,369$33 inLost-$32.851625%4 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…0f47backed Over1c1,250$15 inLost-$152416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Over3c1,111$30 inLost-$3060821.9%133 W · 475 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over1c1,087$14 inLost-$14.412,97328%831 W · 2,142 L-132.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa640…3b9fbacked Over1c1,079$13 inLost-$12.967432.4%24 W · 50 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1c5…8a82backed Over5c1,005$53 inLost-$52.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd37…e117backed Over1c1,000$12 inLost-$12.112437.1%46 W · 78 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over1c999.61$13 inLost-$12.9814612.3%18 W · 128 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fa…363ebacked Over1c987.88$10 inLost-$102321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-61.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Over2c655.66$10 inLost-$1036038.1%137 W · 223 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x783e…2eadbacked Over3c457.78$12 inLost-$12.361330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.