TailMyPicks
Market

Tennis · resolved market

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 Six Kings Slam?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,396
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,453

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,396 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7606…2836backed No54c7,962$4,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,637.337857.7%45 W · 33 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe42e…8d89backed Yes43c4,611$1,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,973.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde91…f20abacked No55c2,500$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.986035%21 W · 39 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-16.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Yes50c2,441$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.54450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Yes47c2,113$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.3812050%60 W · 60 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x132a…abe8backed Yes49c2,001$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.421421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-60.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed No51c1,534$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.4573453%389 W · 345 L+36.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf00a…c77cbacked No49c1,275$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.73955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1574…64c9backed No47c1,264$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.247639.1%186 W · 290 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad10…c665backed Yes46c1,198$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.36752.2%35 W · 32 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Yes45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002152.4%11 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick67cpaid-28.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked No55c1,009$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.351850%9 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8406…0176backed Yes43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43010654.7%58 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked No57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43025244.4%112 W · 140 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes13c875.87$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.381,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Yes48c836.54$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.8167131.3%210 W · 461 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No53c785.34$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf3b…38dbbacked Yes49c635.74$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3104348.8%21 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fae…0d19backed Yes50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30042839.7%170 W · 258 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe86e…8642backed Yes55c551.91$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Yes50c500.52$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25038348%184 W · 199 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Yes51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25522737.4%85 W · 142 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No50c494.62$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.715253.8%28 W · 24 L+7.3wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+60.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes45c434$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.471,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked No59c432.83$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.347655.3%42 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06a9…3b80backed No46c430$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.111843.2%51 W · 67 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes45c422.22$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19013050.8%66 W · 64 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes46c418$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.361010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-69.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7412…0ccbbacked Yes49c403$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.922347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+15.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc36a…be63backed Yes51c380.84$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.043250%16 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes52c373.89$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.643145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd236…d292backed Yes54c373.28$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb75d…9d01backed Yes53c327.48$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.5612154.5%66 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No56c326.69$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.11475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa263…6cf0backed Yes45c320$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14417538.3%67 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes28c300$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8344423.9%106 W · 338 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9363…3608backed Yes50c250$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1252065%13 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+24.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Yes53c230$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.918338.8%71 W · 112 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c66…79c7backed Yes44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Yes53c208.54$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102,33946.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L+55.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e44…f85bbacked Yes44c205.41$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes51c205.21$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6524634.1%84 W · 162 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97be…416dbacked Yes44c200.11$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.951631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-50%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed No48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1048231.7%26 W · 56 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd843…7d56backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006243.5%27 W · 35 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4731…cba8backed No48c199.98$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.9910846.3%50 W · 58 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb0f…559abacked Yes52c191.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002941.4%12 W · 17 L-6.0wins-0.21per pick62cpaid-38.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7faa…16fdbacked Yes52c188.15$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.721540%6 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes50c182.39$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3691050.2%457 W · 453 L-20.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No47c182.12$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.524459.1%26 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d53…3d9dbacked Yes50c140$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes42c120$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.44940.8%20 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ee…8067backed Yes51c105.88$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5449955.1%275 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe05e…1ab8backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332828.6%8 W · 20 L-5.9wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-45%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf397…e1dabacked Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44280%0 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa80d…9e34backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf5c…48f9backed No50c98.43$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2215447.4%73 W · 81 L+14.1wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b32…8166backed Yes51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8330…b3b1backed Yes52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5037233.9%126 W · 246 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c43…1196backed Yes53c96.08$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No46c94.49$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.022770.4%19 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b36…9f34backed Yes45c85.49$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5113151.1%67 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7180…bdbabacked Yes45c77$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356145.9%28 W · 33 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea7…7a4abacked No48c70.38$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.381266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe86c…cbf8backed Yes42c65.95$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08cc…da60backed Yes50c62.6$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.33461.8%21 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cf…3094backed No51c58.51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b31…d7e0backed Yes52c55.46$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b66…c6f5backed Yes52c55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8daf…ef60backed Yes29c51.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3df0…7791backed No51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3bc…55e9backed No51c39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b3…7ae1backed Yes53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04fd…c75cbacked Yes53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf384…e357backed Yes53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e63…b2e1backed Yes53c37.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2361…e16ebacked No54c34.82$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.024436.4%16 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…05f5backed Yes49c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.72857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+42.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x22d1…063dbacked Yes50c29.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Yes51c29.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156250%31 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5104…1712backed Yes50c27.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44f4…df5dbacked Yes45c27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.15520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x875c…d3e8backed Yes51c23.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210250%51 W · 51 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f60…d809backed Yes53c20.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.