TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2506…61e3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
27
Categories scored
4
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 53 out of 100; worst NBA at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT2334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$35.36
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+96.4%+$53.98
Timberwolves vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Jazz vs. Clippersbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Pacers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Bucks vs. Cavaliersbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Suns vs. Nuggetsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Hornets vs. 76ersbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Bulls vs. Magicbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$106.25
Jazz vs. Kingsbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Wizards vs. Mavericksbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+426.3%+$106.58
Nuggets vs. Warriorsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Spurs vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Clippers vs. Jazzbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Pistons vs. Bullsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Wizards vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+25%+$12.5
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$52
Heat vs. Magicbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Warriors vs. Lakersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
Rockets vs. Thunderbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Clippers vs. Warriorsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$63.64
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 23 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+73.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$41.63
Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+42.9%+$13.12
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.