Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f5b9dd89471579b5eef1bbee88a966e50a843d7f79e8278a6426ddad1685b3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 5c | 14,526$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.05 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 6c | 2,923$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.68 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…e69bbacked No | 21c | 1,077$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c1…f022backed Yes | 67c | 745.61$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.61 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +114%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 8c | 686.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed No | 7c | 585$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 80c | 538.79$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.52 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 11c | 532.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…5e49backed Yes | 48c | 500.41$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 6c | 494$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 8c | 399.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed No | 3c | 348.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed No | 12c | 338.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 8c | 326.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 79c | 254.69$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 12c | 253.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 18c | 245.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 7c | 239.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed Yes | 54c | 237.78$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 66c | 222.07$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.78 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 214.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 6c | 200.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 22c | 193$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 29c | 190.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 78c | 182$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 16c | 177.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 8c | 165$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 34c | 147.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb859…249ebacked No | 7c | 144.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 19c | 138.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fc…6946backed No | 14c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 50c | 128.46$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 22c | 123.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 60c | 122$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 55c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 13c | 113.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cd…4a46backed Yes | 76c | 107.05$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 50c | 93.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 16c | 91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed No | 17c | 84.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 52c | 83.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 79.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 22c | 76.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x319e…c608backed Yes | 73c | 76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…1362backed No | 22c | 75.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 36c | 71.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 35c | 65.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 75c | 62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 57c | 49.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed No | 36c | 38.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 45c | 38.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 42c | 34.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 53c | 33.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 49c | 33.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d8…d5acbacked No | 53c | 30.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…a38dbacked Yes | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 55c | 28.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 55c | 24.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Yes | 55c | 24.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 77c | 20.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 73c | 19.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?this page
- Will Amie Baca-Oehlert be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?No won
- Will Dave Young be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?No won
- Will John Szemler be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?No won
- Will Shannon Bird be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.