Fifa International · resolved market
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3efba6a87dca16e482f568863e591f4c480d8a5fa10b86f2b42c66287fda9fb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 58c | 2,212$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.43 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…a3c4backed Over | 47c | 2,110$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 169 | 53.3%90 W · 79 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Over | 32c | 1,501$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.86 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 75c | 1,500$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.99 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 47c | 800$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 858 | 51.2%439 W · 419 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2e…8904backed Under | 25c | 785.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.38 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 52c | 746.9$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.51 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Under | 61c | 590.96$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.42 | 1,380 | 40.2%555 W · 825 L | -51.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 62c | 493.86$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.9 | 1,354 | 38.9%527 W · 827 L | -55.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 62c | 484.06$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.39 | 1,438 | 40.1%576 W · 862 L | -40.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Over | 49c | 406.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.54 | 406 | 55.7%226 W · 180 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…710cbacked Under | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4e…d0c6backed Over | 50c | 360$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 110 | 35.5%39 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…2874backed Under | 56c | 357.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.32 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 58c | 323.44$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.96 | 1,563 | 39.8%622 W · 941 L | -51.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff88…601dbacked Under | 25c | 310.76$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.76 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | +11.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5d…4a56backed Under | 56c | 150.43$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.19 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 47c | 139.91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 50c | 127.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…01abbacked Under | 67c | 106.07$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -12.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 52c | 94.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 52c | 88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a5…740ebacked Under | 58c | 69.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 54c | 43.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8f…89c5backed Over | 50c | 40.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fe…52f6backed Over | 50c | 39.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…7409backed Under | 60c | 30.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 53c | 23.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Under | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5this page
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 2.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Belgium (-1.5)IR Iran won
- Spread: Belgium (-2.5)IR Iran won
- Spread: Belgium (-3.5)IR Iran won
- Spread: Belgium (-4.5)IR Iran won
- Spread: Belgium (-5.5)IR Iran won
- Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)Belgium won
- Spread: IR Iran (-2.5)Belgium won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.