Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Belgium (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf840c2a84f4f1e62bee8ae8739080e4bf835e7f1d1fd806ef45be9a2da1ac3fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- IR Iranof Belgium, IR Iran
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Belgium | 5c | 16,071$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.54 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Belgium | 3c | 10,771$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.38 | 1,627 | 32.1%523 W · 1,104 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Belgium | 3c | 9,357$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.16 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ae…1002backed Belgium | 10c | 9,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 249 | 17.7%44 W · 205 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb2…f24cbacked Belgium | 10c | 7,816$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.63 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebf…37eebacked Belgium | 7c | 5,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.9 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Belgium | 10c | 2,626$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.58 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c1…caf8backed Belgium | 10c | 2,611$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.66 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…9627backed Belgium | 10c | 1,800$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…57acbacked Belgium | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 11%12 W · 97 L | -9.4wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -66%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce82…03d3backed Belgium | 10c | 1,139$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.52 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…09f1backed Belgium | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Belgium | 9c | 666.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 96 | 22.9%22 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b8…4ab2backed Belgium | 9c | 513.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Belgium | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 608 | 21.9%133 W · 475 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd722…0564backed Belgium | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Belgium | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 451 | 20.6%93 W · 358 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…82c5backed Belgium | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1c…bd78backed Belgium | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 35.2%50 W · 92 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Belgium | 5c | 457.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf369…8283backed Belgium | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 259 | 37.5%97 W · 162 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…a7ecbacked Belgium | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed Belgium | 6c | 333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 202 | 24.3%49 W · 153 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…2bf0backed Belgium | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 221 | 22.2%49 W · 172 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed Belgium | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e60…7d58backed Belgium | 6c | 215$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Belgium | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,388 | 15.1%210 W · 1,178 L | -16.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…02b0backed Belgium | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 365 | 34.2%125 W · 240 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf83…da82backed Belgium | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Belgium | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 348 | 44.3%154 W · 194 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…d4b5backed Belgium | 10c | 135.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7393…751abacked Belgium | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 200 | 3%6 W · 194 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe519…2f48backed Belgium | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…b278backed Belgium | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Belgium | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 373 | 23.1%86 W · 287 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x148b…69abbacked Belgium | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe981…3b07backed Belgium | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab6b…521bbacked Belgium | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 184 | 26.1%48 W · 136 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…f0f3backed Belgium | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec1e…3517backed Belgium | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373c…eb7dbacked Belgium | 13c | 91.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32a…5d9ebacked Belgium | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed IR Iran | 78c | 57.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Belgium (-3.5)this page
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 2.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Belgium (-1.5)IR Iran won
- Spread: Belgium (-2.5)IR Iran won
- Spread: Belgium (-4.5)IR Iran won
- Spread: Belgium (-5.5)IR Iran won
- Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)Belgium won
- Spread: IR Iran (-2.5)Belgium won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.