Fifa International · resolved market
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8c571cc971dbf66e5963f9c216d25b6104ee8aab42e49e1a0429ca440d265f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 2c | 4,225$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.52 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 2c | 3,003$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 17c | 2,898$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 146 | 20.5%30 W · 116 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x332c…ae23backed Over | 4c | 2,316$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +6.4wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Over | 17c | 2,058$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.81 | 197 | 13.7%27 W · 170 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Over | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 644 | 43.3%279 W · 365 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 9c | 1,559$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 6c | 889.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 3c | 816.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 16c | 773.86$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.33 | 580 | 29.5%171 W · 409 L | -19.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 16c | 763.7$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.19 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 13c | 691.96$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.35 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc08a…92a4backed Over | 17c | 577.88$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.24 | 94 | 20.2%19 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…4781backed Over | 16c | 499.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 525 | 22.5%118 W · 407 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 16c | 452.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 1,945 | 42.7%831 W · 1,114 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 17c | 441$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 16c | 392.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c1…473ebacked Over | 17c | 377$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 513 | 15.6%80 W · 433 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 16c | 307.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe981…1859backed Over | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 18.3%20 W · 89 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9402…21febacked Over | 18c | 278.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…9c4cbacked Over | 17c | 152.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 10c | 134.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1,669 | 41.6%694 W · 975 L | +15.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 16c | 132.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 2,271 | 39.5%896 W · 1,375 L | +10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5690…7a58backed Over | 14c | 127.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 87 | 31%27 W · 60 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…2a6abacked Over | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x776a…5349backed Over | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7393…751abacked Over | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 200 | 3%6 W · 194 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 823 | 40.9%337 W · 486 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4774…0f6abacked Over | 11c | 90.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…657bbacked Over | 13c | 84.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 306 | 7.8%24 W · 282 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Over | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Over | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 189 | 11.1%21 W · 168 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1144…4b04backed Over | 18c | 58.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5this page
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 2.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5Under won
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Belgium (-1.5)IR Iran won
- Spread: Belgium (-2.5)IR Iran won
- Spread: Belgium (-3.5)IR Iran won
- Spread: Belgium (-4.5)IR Iran won
- Spread: Belgium (-5.5)IR Iran won
- Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)Belgium won
- Spread: IR Iran (-2.5)Belgium won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.