Commodities · resolved market
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5619adb4f6a420a495f2e1cdc4294a89b9c807a27bbdf998755df21be2962b81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 11c | 6,108$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.65 | 119 | 21%25 W · 94 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…47c4backed No | 12c | 2,540$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.46 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 14c | 2,467$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.3 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 12c | 1,897$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.41 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed No | 12c | 1,300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc271…1708backed No | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d76…90a0backed No | 9c | 933.61$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 9c | 907.46$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.11 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…e142backed No | 15c | 683.6$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked No | 18c | 499.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +233%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 6c | 474.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 13c | 471.34$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked No | 16c | 397.64$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed No | 8c | 315.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 124 | 6.5%8 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcf…950ebacked No | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…6b36backed No | 5c | 213.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c12…9a6bbacked No | 19c | 181.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 18c | 178.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…fea9backed No | 10c | 175.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…bc25backed No | 12c | 150.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 14c | 141.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ed…7ee9backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 13c | 92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 15c | 66.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…5af9backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…28f5backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6130…b206backed No | 26c | 40.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e6…cc89backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…70ccbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in June?this page
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.