Middle East · resolved market
Successful Houthi attack on shipping by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd610099f1a4ac659664ea64209c52dadf8e8adbbc04c791000311bcfd1c826a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 0c | 11,200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 2,386$1,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,841.2 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 77c | 1,389$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.11 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…e446backed Yes | 29c | 1,151$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 40c | 946.68$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.68 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 56c | 925$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.49 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…b226backed No | 67c | 922.19$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 70c | 850.76$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.93 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 848.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed No | 2c | 800$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 73c | 773.45$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.81 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bf…0065backed No | 77c | 652.56$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 61c | 600$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.73 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 38c | 578.13$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.13 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 33c | 570.35$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.6 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 66c | 545$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.45 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 23c | 523.42$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.72 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…6b43backed No | 18c | 500$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 13c | 424.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.72 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 71c | 393.36$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.49 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…8414backed Yes | 37c | 378.68$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.68 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 77c | 361.55$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.6 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 31c | 356$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.96 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 30c | 331.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.93 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed No | 65c | 330.45$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.18 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 64c | 321$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61ed…5e7dbacked No | 7c | 270.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0790…fd72backed Yes | 16c | 257.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked Yes | 8c | 257.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.72 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 53c | 255$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.12 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 10c | 250.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.87 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5990…4deabacked Yes | 21c | 230$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 16cpaid | +129.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 21c | 227.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.62 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 64c | 226.84$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked No | 51c | 223.91$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.23 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 49c | 223.47$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.26 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 33c | 222.96$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.37 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 37c | 220$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.18 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e5…f261backed No | 72c | 220$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 65c | 210$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 20c | 195.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.46 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 29c | 191.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.32 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 71c | 180$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked Yes | 10c | 151.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.42 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae0…237cbacked No | 70c | 143.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 31c | 138.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.79 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 75c | 137.96$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.15 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba3…269ebacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 61c | 133.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 131.22$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 127.29$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…f4f1backed No | 68c | 110$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed Yes | 45c | 100.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0892…48d8backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…fb65backed Yes | 26c | 99.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 77c | 98.07$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 26c | 93.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 20c | 84.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…0e43backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 38c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 30c | 75.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 63c | 68.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 48c | 66.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 69c | 62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd794…b277backed Yes | 34c | 59.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bf…b643backed Yes | 60c | 57.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…2cd1backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 22c | 49.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…109bbacked Yes | 42c | 45.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde60…28cabacked No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 38c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…560dbacked Yes | 57c | 38.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…7284backed Yes | 32c | 34.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 80c | 33.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2136…51b8backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65aa…6db2backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa969…3501backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…4926backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be1…36d8backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c0…4273backed No | 62c | 16.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.