TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Successful Houthi attack on shipping by September 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,397
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,293

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,397 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd6b…68f5backed No0c11,200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2613942.4%59 W · 80 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No77c2,386$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,841.264339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No77c1,389$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.113953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5113…e446backed Yes29c1,151$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes40c946.68$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.6834440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes56c925$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.494445.5%20 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a03…b226backed No67c922.19$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6161040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No70c850.76$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.935927.1%16 W · 43 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-35.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c848.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.581,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50f3…c2c2backed No2c800$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No73c773.45$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.8127233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bf…0065backed No77c652.56$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-1.6wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No61c600$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.737851.3%40 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes38c578.13$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.1321926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes33c570.35$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.620823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes66c545$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.4527643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes23c523.42$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.7248630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15a9…6b43backed No18c500$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes13c424.96$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.7219428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes71c393.36$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.4938237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e85…8414backed Yes37c378.68$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.682231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No77c361.55$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.626423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes31c356$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.9633337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes30c331.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.9342818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d19…be54backed No65c330.45$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.183063.3%19 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+78.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes64c321$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.234143.4%148 W · 193 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes34c300$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19856336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x61ed…5e7dbacked No7c270.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0790…fd72backed Yes16c257.58$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.581030%3 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e8f…162cbacked Yes8c257.02$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.721275%9 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+106.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes53c255$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.124537.8%17 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes10c250.97$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.8751138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5990…4deabacked Yes21c230$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.7742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick16cpaid+129.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes21c227.52$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.6214940.9%61 W · 88 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes64c226.84$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9417347.4%82 W · 91 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37ef…a37abacked No51c223.91$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.233132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed Yes49c223.47$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.264759.6%28 W · 19 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+169.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes33c222.96$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.3728943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes37c220$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.1820247%95 W · 107 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9e5…f261backed No72c220$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-55.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes65c210$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.129129.9%87 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd061…d5e4backed Yes18c200$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1653625%9 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes16c200$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16824234.3%83 W · 159 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x656e…65d2backed Yes20c195.47$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.463237.5%12 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes29c191.51$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.3248923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No71c180$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.810234.3%35 W · 67 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Yes10c151.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.42137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes30c150$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.59642.7%41 W · 55 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ae0…237cbacked No70c143.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes31c138.15$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.795633.9%19 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8304…f086backed No75c137.96$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.158555.3%47 W · 38 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-17.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ba3…269ebacked No73c136.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick67cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62d5…78d1backed No61c133.99$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.264843.8%21 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c131.22$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0886542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c127.29$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6267841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fd5…f4f1backed No68c110$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.92147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid+1.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed Yes45c100.34$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.42369.6%16 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32be…bac4backed No18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed No69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697042.9%30 W · 40 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c83…8a22backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6511255.4%62 W · 50 L+11.3wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547233.3%24 W · 48 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0892…48d8backed Yes13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+158.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2847334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6343212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x02b1…fb65backed Yes26c99.59$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.592321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No77c98.07$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.843759.5%22 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed Yes26c93.26$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.445328.3%15 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes20c84.01$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.5926616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x74f0…0e43backed Yes32c80$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.43850%19 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes38c80$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.44456.8%25 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes30c75.34$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9940828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No63c68.29$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0313629.4%40 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed No48c66.29$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8121160.7%128 W · 83 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No69c62$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0440939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed Yes35c60$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.853438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd794…b277backed Yes34c59.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.12837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4bf…b643backed Yes60c57.1$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed No68c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347353.4%39 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f46…2cd1backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362540%10 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes22c49.41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6431719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa41a…109bbacked Yes42c45.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.59650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde60…28cabacked No67c44.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes38c42$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.885855.2%32 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88ee…560dbacked Yes57c38.31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.31633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb557…7284backed Yes32c34.41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed No80c33.35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.686936.2%25 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2136…51b8backed No64c31.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x65aa…6db2backed Yes65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa969…3501backed No73c27.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201225%3 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c03…12b2backed Yes50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.52931%9 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x151d…4926backed No69c21.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-53.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.96637.9%25 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6be1…36d8backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x11c0…4273backed No62c16.45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.