TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x84b0…ee7c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
28
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: UFC, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 59 out of 100; worst MLB at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 20, 2026, EDT1861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick42cpaid+62.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
UFC — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Manel Kape · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+132.2%+$26.43
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Navajo Stirling · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+38.6%+$9.66
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Justin Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+400%+$61.23
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Alex Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.98
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Diego Lopes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+92.5%+$13.88
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Arnold Allen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$42.59
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Daniel Santos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Joshua Van · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+150%+$30
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Rafa Garcia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$21.84
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Kyler Phillips · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.34
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Thiago Moises · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.13
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Renato Moicano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$15.03
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Movsar Evloev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+75.2%+$11.28
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Hernandez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$19
UFC 325: Mullarkey vs. Salkilld (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Mullarkey · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Noche UFC: Gastelum vs. Stoltzfusbacked Gastelum · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+236.1%+$28.1
UFC 319: Elliott vs. Asakurabacked Elliott · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT+374.9%+$46.94
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. McGheebacked McGhee · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.43
All 18 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+66.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$22.17
Jazz vs. Timberwolvesbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Cavaliers vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Jazz vs. Celticsbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+376.2%+$75.24
All 4 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+185.7%+$37.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+163.2%+$32.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dodgers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.