England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08983bd7190f35ee14938116bfcbe43cbb743213b7db3849ae2e3af334fdac03

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $95,749
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $115,695

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,749 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6bc9…ab64backed No	4c	14,056$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530.64	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	+6.8wins	+0.20per pick	6cpaid	+327.9%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	19c	4,950$956 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,993.88	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No	79c	2,660$2,089 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,089.1	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4446…1fd0backed No	77c	2,598$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	65	63.1%41 W · 24 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	65cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15a2…3e89backed Yes	18c	2,178$392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,785.78	112	19.6%22 W · 90 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Yes	57c	1,643$934 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$709.2	1,438	40.1%576 W · 862 L	-40.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x848c…2bf0backed Yes	19c	1,403$266 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,136.05	221	22.2%49 W · 172 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes	21c	1,280$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,006.42	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe167…c0e6backed Yes	18c	1,206$222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$983.8	126	15.1%19 W · 107 L	-4.8wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes	72c	1,118$808 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$309.87	1,492	41%612 W · 880 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed No	72c	1,100$796 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$795.99	858	51.2%439 W · 419 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fca…c922backed Yes	19c	1,075$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$875.42	125	17.6%22 W · 103 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf639…4a74backed Yes	19c	1,053$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$852.63	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8443…2988backed Yes	19c	1,032$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$835.58	93	31.2%29 W · 64 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75fc…0a4cbacked Yes	34c	988.68$336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$652.68	122	23%28 W · 94 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes	18c	984.99$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$807.97	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Yes	18c	874.53$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$717.11	644	43.3%279 W · 365 L	-10.9wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes	30c	867.16$263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$603.76	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes	18c	839$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$689.03	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No	80c	806.11$645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$644.74	831	53.3%443 W · 388 L	+15.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked No	78c	592.24$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.26	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	10c	568.4$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.84	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes	15c	567.88$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$482.7	366	31.1%114 W · 252 L	+18.2wins	+0.05per pick	26cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e2a…d25cbacked Yes	18c	548.3$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$448.3	191	24.6%47 W · 144 L	-6.8wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2618…aecfbacked Yes	19c	526.32$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$426.32	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06a0…5804backed Yes	31c	506.45$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$349.45	100	50%50 W · 50 L	+4.9wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x372e…4453backed Yes	18c	500$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$410	148	29.1%43 W · 105 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfe…6edabacked Yes	18c	399.99$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.99	48	27.1%13 W · 35 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4629…ab9abacked Yes	19c	315.79$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255.79	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe569…e759backed Yes	18c	277.78$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.78	524	41.4%217 W · 307 L	+5.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4186…7513backed Yes	18c	277.78$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.78	44	25%11 W · 33 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd2…21ebbacked Yes	18c	277.78$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.78	103	5.8%6 W · 97 L	-5.0wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-66%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes	24c	269.58$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.03	1,669	41.6%694 W · 975 L	+15.9wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5090…9e15backed Yes	18c	267.11$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$219.03	69	18.8%13 W · 56 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bd8…f260backed Yes	19c	263.16$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$213.16	379	19.5%74 W · 305 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8614…4d84backed Yes	19c	263.16$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$213.16	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked No	10c	233.4$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.34	1,114	49.4%550 W · 564 L	+57.3wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e5f…fc3cbacked Yes	17c	230.6$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.4	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.13per pick	31cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbff7…560fbacked Yes	18c	222.22$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.22	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb3…5affbacked No	72c	208.72$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	44	54.5%24 W · 20 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes	23c	200$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.38	1,563	39.8%622 W · 941 L	-51.9wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3486…43ddbacked Yes	19c	184.21$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.21	90	31.1%28 W · 62 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x292a…e42fbacked Yes	17c	176.47$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.47	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa0…75d2backed Yes	18c	166.67$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.67	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed No	71c	152.14$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.92	374	58.8%220 W · 154 L	+18.9wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea2a…9997backed Yes	17c	147.06$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.06	54	31.5%17 W · 37 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9abb…3f96backed No	72c	139.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	129	64.3%83 W · 46 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	61cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Yes	17c	125.49$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.76	823	48.8%402 W · 421 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Yes	32c	116.4$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.74	1,380	40.2%555 W · 825 L	-51.6wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-23%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91b2…80cebacked Yes	19c	115.79$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.79	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+2.9wins	+0.36per pick	27cpaid	+159.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8577…0eb3backed Yes	31c	111.11$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.11	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-33%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x973d…e294backed Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.11	301	48.2%145 W · 156 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa334…55fabacked Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.11	52	30.8%16 W · 36 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70f2…1652backed Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.11	130	37.7%49 W · 81 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b20…2f94backed Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.11	207	29%60 W · 147 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13e1…f309backed Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.11	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb73…4f95backed Yes	18c	108.39$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.88	95	42.1%40 W · 55 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80cd…0558backed Yes	18c	105.56$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.56	93	18.3%17 W · 76 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Yes	19c	100$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81	331	20.8%69 W · 262 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed No	74c	100$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	572	52.4%300 W · 272 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa908…b240backed Yes	18c	100$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	26cpaid	+56.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe782…bb92backed Yes	17c	99.99$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.99	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f33…17b8backed Yes	18c	95.42$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.24	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b87…26f4backed Yes	21c	95.24$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.24	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	22cpaid	+31.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No	67c	80.97$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.54	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b03…ac24backed Yes	18c	66.84$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.84	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.45per pick	21cpaid	+196.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d91…f6dabacked Yes	18c	66.67$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.67	136	33.1%45 W · 91 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe39a…efc1backed Yes	31c	64.52$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.52	71	26.8%19 W · 52 L	-4.8wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x661e…c63ebacked Yes	26c	61.68$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.68	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd651…bff1backed No	76c	55$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.55	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.31per pick	71cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd3c…fc78backed Yes	21c	52$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.08	225	60.4%136 W · 89 L	+7.7wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dab…3087backed Yes	30c	50$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ad…a4dcbacked Yes	31c	48.39$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.39	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+3.0wins	+0.19per pick	44cpaid	+43.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x92ed…21dcbacked Yes	27c	45$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.85	20	75%15 W · 5 L	+3.4wins	+0.17per pick	58cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd787…3d15backed Yes	33c	44.91$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.09	42	38.1%16 W · 26 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No	74c	40$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3803…7eafbacked No	71c	40$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.4	208	50.5%105 W · 103 L	+16.9wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+95.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x404c…5c87backed Yes	34c	39$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.6	67	65.7%44 W · 23 L	+12.4wins	+0.18per pick	47cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0xdff2…2e27backed Yes	31c	39$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.91	50	60%30 W · 20 L	+8.1wins	+0.16per pick	44cpaid	+45.5%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No	66c	30.35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.01	205	61%125 W · 80 L	+7.8wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked No	72c	25$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.9	1,559	52.4%817 W · 742 L	+97.8wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3161…8492backed No	71c	20.92$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.71per pick	71cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed No	70c	15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	246	54.1%133 W · 113 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked No	79c	14.06$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.15	70	55.7%39 W · 31 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Halfthis page
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5Over won
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5Over won
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5Under won
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
England vs. Croatia: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5Over won
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5Over won
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5Over won
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5Over won
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5Over won
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5Over won
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5Over won
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5Over won
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5Over won
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5Under won
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5Under won
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5Under won
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)England won
Spread: Croatia (-2.5)England won
Spread: England (-1.5)England won
Spread: England (-2.5)Croatia won
Spread: England (-3.5)Croatia won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event