TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,414,846
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,694,889

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,414,846 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,395 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No49c140,640$68,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,891.344,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9243…658ebacked No50c130,874$65,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,501.1715249.3%75 W · 77 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes49c113,738$56,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,703.388,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Yes62c80,317$49,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,817.2719644.9%88 W · 108 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed No47c73,905$34,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,963.43,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes49c56,563$27,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,583.871,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked No51c50,000$25,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,299.846627.3%18 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked No50c49,196$24,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,457.222,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Yes50c45,572$22,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,785.7816546.1%76 W · 89 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked No49c43,226$21,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,313.1615950.3%80 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e3a…55babacked Yes50c43,198$21,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,599.0615044%66 W · 84 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked No52c40,975$21,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,307.2122846.9%107 W · 121 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No45c40,118$17,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,878.693,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked No50c32,723$16,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,484.1621343.2%92 W · 121 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xece6…c4bfbacked Yes49c29,250$14,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,917.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eaf…a3a1backed Yes49c27,925$13,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,241.953930.8%12 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked Yes49c26,927$13,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,719.0714843.2%64 W · 84 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked No50c26,366$13,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,183.2421333.3%71 W · 142 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes49c26,296$12,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,450.142,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Yes59c24,516$14,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,021.3753448.5%259 W · 275 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked No38c23,593$9,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,037.9549441.5%205 W · 289 L+27.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6e4…07b1backed Yes50c20,518$10,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,258.8318343.7%80 W · 103 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6320…7e94backed Yes49c20,000$9,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,280.6138817.5%68 W · 320 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes50c18,213$9,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,108.412,17138.2%829 W · 1,342 L-36.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Yes49c15,431$7,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,845.5423949.4%118 W · 121 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked No51c15,098$7,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,7007545.3%34 W · 41 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa61…522abacked Yes52c15,048$7,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,280.81825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-49.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed No50c15,000$7,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,549.8920044.5%89 W · 111 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf285…ab24backed No51c15,000$7,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,649.859253.3%49 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb84…5fb5backed Yes50c14,632$7,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,3165843.1%25 W · 33 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked No51c11,999$6,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,119.729646.3%137 W · 159 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf59c…a682backed Yes50c11,064$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,564.287636.8%28 W · 48 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Yes50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00010555.2%58 W · 47 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed No50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00021937%81 W · 138 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70ef…e6ddbacked No50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010840.7%44 W · 64 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x374b…4a4cbacked Yes49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,099.954734%16 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+83.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked No51c10,000$5,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,149.8870648.2%340 W · 366 L+0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a54…7c49backed Yes51c9,865$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,865.14930.6%15 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Yes51c9,804$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,803.9231644.9%142 W · 174 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked No44c9,284$4,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,106.041,22443.4%531 W · 693 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bd3…394cbacked Yes49c9,246$4,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,690.3313857.2%79 W · 59 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed No39c8,812$3,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,436.5874752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed No50c7,963$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.5771638.4%275 W · 441 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No51c7,867$4,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,007.52,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No46c7,848$3,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,623.84,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Yes50c7,762$3,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,860.7922752.4%119 W · 108 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cf6…9af0backed No53c7,443$3,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,944.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked No51c7,108$3,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,650.11,87348.4%906 W · 967 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked No50c6,892$3,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,423.421,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa66c…cd67backed Yes58c6,807$3,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,850.5718047.8%86 W · 94 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No50c6,580$3,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,29029740.1%119 W · 178 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed No49c6,023$2,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,949.211,06331.7%337 W · 726 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No53c5,911$3,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,113.262,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7fd…89debacked No53c5,502$2,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,915.824841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8453…0db2backed No52c5,500$2,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8602425%6 W · 18 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-47.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd02a…4771backed Yes48c5,477$2,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,848.074052.5%21 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b5d…7501backed Yes49c5,424$2,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,766.128160.5%49 W · 32 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes56c5,086$2,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,247.12,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e1…8be4backed Yes50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5004233.3%14 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x443b…e8bbbacked Yes49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,55013746.7%64 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe823…2a61backed Yes50c4,800$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4003324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed No44c4,620$2,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,028.061,62732.1%523 W · 1,104 L+4.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed No45c4,232$1,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,894.648247.6%39 W · 43 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Yes50c4,200$2,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1026947.8%33 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d9…48a6backed No49c4,169$2,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,042.628743.7%38 W · 49 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Yes48c4,124$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,124.158639.5%34 W · 52 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No52c4,015$2,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,071.181,04443.7%456 W · 588 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c1d…4162backed Yes50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0001643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed No51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.9429250.7%148 W · 144 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d4a…2435backed Yes50c3,937$1,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,968.461163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e83…9bdebacked Yes51c3,482$1,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,706.08728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea5b…40cabacked Yes50c3,333$1,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.68714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-71.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21e8…b85ebacked Yes50c3,200$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6006550.8%33 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes50c3,155$1,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,572.011,01931.6%322 W · 697 L-10.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x502e…5442backed Yes49c3,061$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.2216746.7%78 W · 89 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes49c3,008$1,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.220053%106 W · 94 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8326…da54backed No51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e58…5749backed Yes50c2,872$1,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.934261.9%26 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5522…c807backed Yes50c2,854$1,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,427.2216056.3%90 W · 70 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-14.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Yes48c2,780$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,445.64841.7%20 W · 28 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c69…b1debacked No47c2,513$1,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.052955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed No39c2,505$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.958254.9%45 W · 37 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+12%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1a77…1324backed Yes50c2,500$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2501172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc087…dbbabacked Yes48c2,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3007541.3%31 W · 44 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+46.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed No51c2,488$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.763,07747%1,447 W · 1,630 L-11.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c8…7cc8backed No53c2,485$1,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,31712241%50 W · 72 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x39bc…2739backed Yes50c2,400$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2009241.3%38 W · 54 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No51c2,392$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.7256541.1%232 W · 333 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed No51c2,349$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.5952744.4%234 W · 293 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6999…6217backed Yes48c2,292$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b89…1069backed No50c2,256$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.43256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9912…5d4abacked Yes47c2,128$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.663063.3%19 W · 11 L+6.0wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe398…215fbacked Yes48c2,125$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1051100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c93…547cbacked Yes48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…4850backed Yes50c2,056$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0281643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No51c2,053$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.893,21347.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0b…c5ffbacked Yes49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.8219150.3%96 W · 95 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf531…121cbacked Yes49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.8217944.1%79 W · 100 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fdf…3b6cbacked Yes49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.824334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-30.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Yes50c2,030$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.2312248.4%59 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.