TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Argentina (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Austriaof Argentina, Austria
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,278
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,253

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,278 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x627b…285bbacked Argentina4c1,911$80 inLost-$8012844.5%57 W · 71 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+18.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc18a…7c09backed Argentina2c1,603$35 inLost-$35.277810.5%4 W · 777 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-69.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce82…03d3backed Argentina3c1,123$39 inLost-$38.857321.9%16 W · 57 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-55.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77fc…0eacbacked Argentina2c654.51$15 inLost-$14.9210518.1%19 W · 86 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x51fb…9b84backed Argentina6c524$29 inLost-$29.4115235.5%54 W · 98 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d76…92b5backed Argentina5c500$25 inLost-$259428.7%27 W · 67 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e5a…7032backed Argentina3c482$14 inLost-$14.462832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-44.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x49e1…a8bdbacked Argentina5c413.52$20 inLost-$2012517.6%22 W · 103 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-43.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Argentina3c357.14$10 inLost-$101,38815.1%210 W · 1,178 L-16.0wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64fb…8e0bbacked Argentina3c357.14$10 inLost-$106136.1%22 W · 39 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x65f5…5e42backed Argentina5c260.74$12 inLost-$123036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cab…f49abacked Argentina5c200$10 inLost-$106839.7%27 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.