TailMyPicks
Market

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Austria (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Argentinaof Austria, Argentina
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$202,836
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$251,886

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,836 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfde6…7ed6backed Austria2c50,000$1,090 inLost-$1,09042710.3%44 W · 383 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37ae…1002backed Austria4c10,567$371 inLost-$370.7124917.7%44 W · 205 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Austria3c5,365$150 inLost-$149.753,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b6d…27bbbacked Austria3c3,625$100 inLost-$1004238.1%16 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e47…b3d0backed Austria3c3,197$96 inLost-$9620819.7%41 W · 167 L+0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Austria3c3,147$95 inLost-$94.588,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Austria3c2,898$87 inLost-$86.892,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b0d…fec9backed Austria2c2,500$39 inLost-$38.9990%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b5…61f9backed Austria4c2,434$89 inLost-$88.883514.3%5 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48f…7f39backed Austria3c2,193$68 inLost-$67.993616.7%6 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed Austria3c1,978$63 inLost-$63.2812825.8%33 W · 95 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc966…e142backed Austria3c1,967$59 inLost-$593710.8%4 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-72%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff2…c175backed Austria3c1,588$49 inLost-$49.17617.1%13 W · 63 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc18a…7c09backed Austria3c1,585$43 inLost-$42.87810.5%4 W · 777 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-69.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa850…9b11backed Austria3c1,557$50 inLost-$49.8215229.6%45 W · 107 L-11.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b63…bdd3backed Austria3c1,326$40 inLost-$39.785616.1%9 W · 47 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc347…415dbacked Austria3c1,089$33 inLost-$32.661414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Austria3c1,031$32 inLost-$31.8865835%230 W · 428 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0475…ed7abacked Austria3c1,021$30 inLost-$30.341735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x620e…5032backed Austria3c1,000$30 inLost-$303560%21 W · 14 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+30.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8da1…a0d3backed Austria3c794.29$24 inLost-$23.992799.7%27 W · 252 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Austria3c768.99$23 inLost-$22.5938734.4%133 W · 254 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d7a…751abacked Austria3c667.56$21 inLost-$20.6973234.6%253 W · 479 L-22.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Austria3c632.72$19 inLost-$18.9854917.9%98 W · 451 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Austria3c600$18 inLost-$1824825.8%64 W · 184 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x177a…47bdbacked Austria3c600$18 inLost-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x671a…cf16backed Austria3c510.37$15 inLost-$156266.7%42 W · 584 L-0.6wins0.00per pick7cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Austria4c500$20 inLost-$19.533120.8%69 W · 262 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed Austria3c500$15 inLost-$156516.9%11 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7cb…fbe2backed Austria3c423.98$12 inLost-$12.3400%0 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Austria3c397.48$11 inLost-$11.453,21347.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3944…6470backed Austria3c387.17$12 inLost-$11.614030%12 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c18…926abacked Austria3c370.4$10 inLost-$103112.9%4 W · 27 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-79.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a31…80d4backed Austria3c334$10 inLost-$10.023925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Austria3c307.23$10 inLost-$10.472,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ed5…44bfbacked Austria4c227.12$10 inLost-$1017941.3%74 W · 105 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-24.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.