Fifa International · resolved market
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bcab5f6ab40b357021bf4c86334c7715b997578274be8893d3c78248aac0b74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 5c | 23,628$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.33 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 4c | 16,148$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.71 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Over | 6c | 9,013$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.78 | 1,985 | 32.5%645 W · 1,340 L | -47.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 2c | 2,952$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa4…9fb6backed Over | 6c | 2,590$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.51 | 59 | 5.1%3 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…dbecbacked Over | 6c | 2,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 316 | 11.4%36 W · 280 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 3c | 2,364$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 1,627 | 32.1%523 W · 1,104 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 6c | 2,197$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.82 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…eac3backed Over | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 159 | 20.1%32 W · 127 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Over | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 341 | 25.8%88 W · 253 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe668…8a94backed Over | 6c | 1,754$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.21 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…cfdabacked Over | 6c | 1,460$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 79 | 11.4%9 W · 70 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a51…f305backed Over | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 188 | 27.7%52 W · 136 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6b…3e58backed Over | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 11%12 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 2c | 692$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3c…104bbacked Over | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6f…d024backed Over | 4c | 544.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 774 | 33.1%256 W · 518 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2413…4216backed Over | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…30d6backed Over | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3300…ead7backed Over | 4c | 499.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 5c | 458.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 451 | 20.6%93 W · 358 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…7a58backed Over | 6c | 435.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 438 | 19.2%84 W · 354 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4433…9d34backed Over | 6c | 384$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 788 | 35.3%278 W · 510 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ef…afaebacked Over | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496b…f9c6backed Over | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb1…daf7backed Over | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 188 | 21.8%41 W · 147 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf81…2e35backed Over | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…9627backed Over | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 283 | 37.1%105 W · 178 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0b…d25bbacked Over | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…3655backed Over | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f49…231dbacked Over | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5246…cb03backed Over | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb2…5e08backed Over | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e1…9676backed Over | 6c | 171.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5this page
- Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5Over won
- Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5Over won
- Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5Under won
- Argentina vs. Austria: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Argentina vs. Austria: Austria 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5Under won
- Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 1.5Under won
- Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 2.5Under won
- Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5Over won
- Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5Over won
- Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5Under won
- Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5Under won
- Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5Under won
- Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5Under won
- Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 7.5Under won
- Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Argentina (-1.5)Argentina won
- Spread: Argentina (-2.5)Austria won
- Spread: Argentina (-3.5)Austria won
- Spread: Argentina (-4.5)Austria won
- Spread: Argentina (-5.5)Austria won
- Spread: Austria (-1.5)Argentina won
- Spread: Austria (-2.5)Argentina won
- Spread: Austria (-3.5)Argentina won
- Spread: Austria (-5.5)Argentina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.