TailMyPicks
Market

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Argentina (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Austriaof Argentina, Austria
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$161,715
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$175,092

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,715 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Argentina2c9,704$172 inLost-$172.243,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Argentina7c7,245$533 inLost-$533.364,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d06…f79dbacked Argentina8c5,882$500 inLost-$50012536.8%46 W · 79 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37ae…1002backed Argentina6c5,091$303 inLost-$303.4224917.7%44 W · 205 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ca3…2d23backed Argentina8c5,054$399 inLost-$398.64277.4%2 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Argentina9c5,000$450 inLost-$45025019.6%49 W · 201 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Argentina8c3,208$257 inLost-$256.662,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f88…cd62backed Argentina6c3,151$200 inLost-$2002045%9 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+41.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ebf…37eebacked Argentina3c3,027$97 inLost-$96.87137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-76%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e56…cfdabacked Argentina7c1,462$102 inLost-$101.577911.4%9 W · 70 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Argentina8c1,270$100 inLost-$10019317.1%33 W · 160 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce82…03d3backed Argentina8c1,123$92 inLost-$91.957321.9%16 W · 57 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-55.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Argentina5c944.51$51 inLost-$51.112,97328%831 W · 2,142 L-132.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Argentina7c903.25$61 inLost-$61.4248937%181 W · 308 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d76…92b5backed Argentina8c901.73$75 inLost-$759428.7%27 W · 67 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed Argentina7c746.49$50 inLost-$509622.9%22 W · 74 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7592…f661backed Argentina8c699.99$57 inLost-$57.48939.3%35 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98b8…4ab2backed Argentina6c684.14$42 inLost-$42.3110133.7%34 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65f5…5e42backed Argentina8c649.35$50 inLost-$503036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e6e…ddd3backed Argentina8c625$50 inLost-$50219.5%2 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-67.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa599…5230backed Argentina3c601.99$20 inLost-$2028535.8%102 W · 183 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61aa…216abacked Argentina8c585.12$49 inLost-$49.154337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9637…a576backed Argentina8c523.1$44 inLost-$43.9445120.6%93 W · 358 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fb…9b84backed Argentina8c520$42 inLost-$42.2515235.5%54 W · 98 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Argentina8c519.48$40 inLost-$4060821.9%133 W · 475 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5a…7032backed Argentina8c465$36 inLost-$35.662832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-44.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x627b…285bbacked Argentina7c409.61$30 inLost-$3012844.5%57 W · 71 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+18.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Argentina7c405.67$30 inLost-$29.592,63432.9%867 W · 1,767 L+43.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e89…3e0abacked Argentina8c361.45$30 inLost-$3026716.1%43 W · 224 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81b0…858cbacked Argentina8c312.5$25 inLost-$252123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Argentina8c275.48$22 inLost-$21.661,00544.3%445 W · 560 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Argentina7c257.12$17 inLost-$17.481,62732.1%523 W · 1,104 L+4.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Argentina8c240.96$20 inLost-$201,38815.1%210 W · 1,178 L-16.0wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Argentina7c218.91$16 inLost-$16.331,42147.8%679 W · 742 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Argentina6c192.26$12 inLost-$12.32,45334.7%850 W · 1,603 L+84.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bc1…80c1backed Argentina8c181.43$14 inLost-$14100%0 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c48…009cbacked Argentina8c180.72$15 inLost-$15214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-68.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cfd…3d84backed Argentina9c166.67$15 inLost-$1537323.1%86 W · 287 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89ae…29e6backed Argentina9c166.67$15 inLost-$15205%1 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-80%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe36c…a856backed Argentina8c142.38$11 inLost-$11.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Argentina8c140$11 inLost-$10.6482348.8%402 W · 421 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e42…87d9backed Argentina8c139.25$11 inLost-$11.142128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x953e…79ffbacked Argentina9c130$12 inLost-$11.711535.7%41 W · 74 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b59…be19backed Argentina8c125$10 inLost-$1032312.1%39 W · 284 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.