TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$142,281
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$146,218

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,281 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3496…8fc4backed Under14c88,000$12,320 inLost-$12,32017034.7%59 W · 111 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under13c13,334$1,710 inLost-$1,7103,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd436…f521backed Under0c10,000$10 inLost-$105541.8%23 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under12c2,212$257 inLost-$257.43,73151.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L+55.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Under13c2,000$260 inLost-$26070648.2%340 W · 366 L+0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Under11c1,000$110 inLost-$1101,07545.2%486 W · 589 L+41.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under13c976.96$127 inLost-$127.012,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed Under13c778.16$97 inLost-$97.2892038.5%354 W · 566 L-21.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under13c696.62$90 inLost-$89.723,07747%1,447 W · 1,630 L-11.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under7c595$44 inLost-$43.992,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under12c385.28$46 inLost-$46.232,97328%831 W · 2,142 L-132.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under14c300$41 inLost-$40.781,20448.9%589 W · 615 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf15b…000fbacked Under14c250$35 inLost-$34.8511642.2%49 W · 67 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under13c213.73$27 inLost-$27.133,21347.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under5c200$10 inLost-$102,45334.7%850 W · 1,603 L+84.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Under14c165.06$23 inLost-$23.1148937%181 W · 308 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84df…4a96backed Under13c153.85$20 inLost-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e56…cfdabacked Under12c131$16 inLost-$15.727911.4%9 W · 70 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70fc…5d5dbacked Under13c114$15 inLost-$14.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.