TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Tobias Harris: Points O/U 17.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$928
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$947

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $928 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa0fd…a91ebacked Yes48c350.7$170 inLost-$1709353.8%50 W · 43 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No50c240.7$120 inWon+$120.3590863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed No55c200$110 inWon+$9012347.2%58 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes45c145.45$65 inLost-$65.4520155.7%112 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes51c98.57$50 inLost-$5030055.7%167 W · 133 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No56c79.88$44 inWon+$35.4685449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No49c77.62$38 inWon+$39.5879650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed No55c45.45$25 inWon+$20.4566046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9541…b58ebacked Yes44c34.09$15 inLost-$1510725.2%27 W · 80 L-8.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-36.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb48…6ad1backed No77c33.16$26 inWon+$7.631752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No53c28$15 inWon+$13.0633049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d16…821abacked Yes47c27.49$13 inLost-$12.9213441%55 W · 79 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No63c22.22$14 inWon+$8.2219555.4%108 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.