NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 100.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a3451bbba9e926689edc158fbe86bf70d9ff4d9c3f01e6e21dc1ed5fb664974
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 54c | 6,478$3,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,979.91 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | -12.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 47c | 6,003$2,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,821.13 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Over | 53c | 5,660$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,660.38 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…0c42backed Under | 46c | 4,348$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7c…6244backed Over | 53c | 4,260$2,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,002.17 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Over | 52c | 4,210$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,020.25 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Under | 48c | 4,200$2,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,016 | 221 | 43%95 W · 126 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 47c | 4,025$1,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,881.26 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Over | 59c | 3,568$2,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,462.72 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Over | 55c | 3,500$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Over | 53c | 3,421$1,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.2 | 201 | 55.7%112 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 3,288$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489.75 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 45c | 2,691$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.18 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 59c | 1,608$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.36 | 313 | 54.3%170 W · 143 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Over | 55c | 1,520$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.28 | 96 | 28.1%27 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 46c | 1,259$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.17 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 47c | 1,012$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.68 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 46c | 813.85$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.24 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…8793backed Over | 55c | 709.78$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.4 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 53c | 599.99$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 575.73$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.8 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed Under | 47c | 440.79$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a9…565cbacked Over | 53c | 438.04$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.88 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 60cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…1a45backed Under | 48c | 398.56$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.31 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 47c | 372.21$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.94 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 47c | 372.21$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.94 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 46c | 327$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.42 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed Over | 59c | 254.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.37 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 48c | 237.49$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.34 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Over | 50c | 205.9$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.9 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 53c | 202.12$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 292 | 43.8%128 W · 164 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb002…103dbacked Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 55c | 192.73$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.73 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba9…c25fbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Over | 58c | 173.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3824backed Over | 56c | 172.8$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.03 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d16…821abacked Over | 53c | 138.49$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.09 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 45c | 108.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 47c | 105.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Over | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…e6d8backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…ca29backed Under | 47c | 74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Over | 53c | 71.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Over | 50c | 65.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…4b60backed Under | 50c | 65.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Under | 46c | 63.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 405 | 46.9%190 W · 215 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Over | 55c | 60.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 143 | 57.3%82 W · 61 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 47c | 59.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 48c | 54.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…3db9backed Over | 45c | 53.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under | 46c | 53.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 188 | 53.7%101 W · 87 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb455…a58abacked Under | 48c | 42.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Under | 37c | 41.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 249 | 36.9%92 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Under | 68c | 39.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970f…f167backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce4…8f30backed Over | 53c | 35.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…9291backed Over | 53c | 32.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…44ebbacked Under | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…e52ebacked Over | 53c | 26.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbf…388ebacked Under | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 48c | 25.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1810…a73ebacked Over | 59c | 25.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 54c | 23.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…8d7dbacked Under | 48c | 22.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4def…06e6backed Under | 46c | 21.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 54c | 21.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 53c | 21.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…644cbacked Over | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…b617backed Over | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 236 | 51.7%122 W · 114 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 100.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Ausar Thompson: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Cavaliers vs. PistonsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 207.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 210.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5Over won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-14.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Cavaliers won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Tobias Harris: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.