NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-14.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2776596baba0c8c2e27c50fae83035c8005f3ca3be9311070a35b5bf0c447efb

Rebuilt 21 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Cavaliersof Pistons, Cavaliers
Resolved: May 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $73,772
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $77,287

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,772 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Pistons	21c	35,372$7,428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,428.09	48	25%12 W · 36 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers	79c	19,769$15,536 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,233.27	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked Pistons	22c	10,841$2,419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,418.76	127	41.7%53 W · 74 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Cavaliers	79c	9,600$7,584 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,016	316	44.6%141 W · 175 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Cavaliers	79c	6,494$5,132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,362.36	649	48.2%313 W · 336 L	-3.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Cavaliers	78c	4,456$3,475 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$980.22	131	48.1%63 W · 68 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Pistons	22c	4,000$880 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$880	166	33.7%56 W · 110 L	-11.6wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Pistons	21c	2,993$629 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$628.51	199	37.2%74 W · 125 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-15%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbbd…d6f0backed Cavaliers	78c	2,713$2,116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$596.82	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Cavaliers	77c	2,320$1,798 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$522.16	663	52.6%349 W · 314 L	+30.1wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Cavaliers	79c	1,444$1,141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$303.3	240	48.3%116 W · 124 L	-13.4wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa62a…f05bbacked Cavaliers	79c	1,266$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.82	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	-3.2wins	-0.10per pick	68cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Cavaliers	78c	975$761 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$214.5	64	45.3%29 W · 35 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Pistons	21c	953.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.16	1,901	48.7%925 W · 976 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Cavaliers	78c	949.48$741 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.89	521	50.9%265 W · 256 L	+18.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e39…77f3backed Pistons	22c	890.76$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	54	31.5%17 W · 37 L	-3.6wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x987b…3d00backed Cavaliers	79c	885.66$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.66	165	55.8%92 W · 73 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7677…37c0backed Pistons	20c	786.25$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.25	141	48.2%68 W · 73 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Cavaliers	80c	750$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	241	59.8%144 W · 97 L	+9.8wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c04…a593backed Pistons	22c	549.55$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.9	84	39.3%33 W · 51 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Cavaliers	79c	466$368 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.86	452	51.1%231 W · 221 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Cavaliers	79c	446.94$353 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.86	160	48.8%78 W · 82 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Pistons	21c	400$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	620	51.1%317 W · 303 L	+14.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Cavaliers	79c	391.17$309 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.67	255	54.5%139 W · 116 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4b2…8c41backed Cavaliers	79c	365.71$289 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.8	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Cavaliers	79c	310$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.1	958	48.7%467 W · 491 L	+24.5wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Pistons	20c	262.95$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.59	600	49.8%299 W · 301 L	+6.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Cavaliers	79c	253.16$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.16	476	51.7%246 W · 230 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23f9…3c2dbacked Pistons	22c	230$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.6	186	43.5%81 W · 105 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba1b…82fdbacked Pistons	22c	227.27$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Cavaliers	79c	209.88$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.91	193	60.1%116 W · 77 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Cavaliers	79c	189.87$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.87	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	-5.2wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Cavaliers	79c	186.63$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.19	73	42.5%31 W · 42 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Cavaliers	79c	150.72$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.65	144	64.6%93 W · 51 L	+10.3wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e03…8b79backed Pistons	22c	136.36$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Cavaliers	80c	125$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	611	51.4%314 W · 297 L	+17.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bc5…8b88backed Pistons	22c	110.32$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.27	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30bc…c428backed Pistons	22c	104.5$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.99	47	36.2%17 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33d…1b02backed Pistons	22c	100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf07…4a12backed Pistons	24c	99.36$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.75	370	37.3%138 W · 232 L	-5.6wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Pistons	17c	95.74$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.28	726	48.3%351 W · 375 L	+30.5wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Cavaliers	75c	88.72$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.18	320	45.3%145 W · 175 L	-7.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Cavaliers	77c	82.34$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.58	186	53.2%99 W · 87 L	+9.5wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Cavaliers	79c	78.01$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.27	113	64.6%73 W · 40 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b2f…fe3fbacked Cavaliers	79c	62.5$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.12	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef20…8f64backed Cavaliers	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Cavaliers	79c	60$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.54	166	59.6%99 W · 67 L	+5.9wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc392…595dbacked Pistons	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	405	48.4%196 W · 209 L	+8.9wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Cavaliers	79c	57.94$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.17	1,084	50%542 W · 542 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Pistons	21c	56.4$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.11	304	48.4%147 W · 157 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcc…031ebacked Cavaliers	79c	50.63$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.63	233	49.4%115 W · 118 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7204…fcffbacked Cavaliers	80c	41.25$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.25	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc37e…9e64backed Cavaliers	79c	39.44$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.24	114	46.5%53 W · 61 L	-7.2wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Cavaliers	78c	35.76$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.7	927	50.6%469 W · 458 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Cavaliers	79c	35.03$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.36	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-5.6wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Cavaliers	79c	35$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.35	267	55.1%147 W · 120 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3a6…52d2backed Cavaliers	79c	33.16$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.96	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	63cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x209e…5703backed Cavaliers	79c	25.32$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.32	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+2.3wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+71.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c9b…7349backed Cavaliers	79c	25.32$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.32	215	74.4%160 W · 55 L	+8.5wins	+0.04per pick	70cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed Cavaliers	79c	24.05$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.05	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Cavaliers	79c	21.78$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.64	294	49.7%146 W · 148 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d50…d283backed Cavaliers	78c	21.78$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.79	91	57.1%52 W · 39 L	+6.8wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3aa7…303dbacked Cavaliers	79c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.15	60	60%36 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd306…463dbacked Cavaliers	79c	18.99$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.99	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-5.4wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc56b…3afdbacked Cavaliers	79c	18.23$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.83	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.6wins	+0.14per pick	49cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x95e4…5134backed Cavaliers	78c	16.61$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.59	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2827…64f6backed Cavaliers	79c	16$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.36	96	55.2%53 W · 43 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2148…3da9backed Cavaliers	79c	15.43$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.24	46	41.3%19 W · 27 L	-4.9wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-21%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3bcd…ac63backed Cavaliers	80c	14.07$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.87	48	58.3%28 W · 20 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab92…19e5backed Cavaliers	79c	13.65$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.87	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-2.2wins	-0.13per pick	60cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fa8…0b19backed Cavaliers	79c	13.15$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.76	213	54%115 W · 98 L	+8.5wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Pistons (-14.5)this page
1H Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Cavaliers won
1H Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Cavaliers won
Ausar Thompson: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 8.5No won
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5No won
Cavaliers vs. PistonsCavaliers won
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 100.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 207.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 210.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5Over won
Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5No won
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5No won
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5No won
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Cavaliers won
Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Cavaliers won
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Cavaliers won
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Cavaliers won
Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Cavaliers won
Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Cavaliers won
Tobias Harris: Points O/U 16.5No won
Tobias Harris: Points O/U 17.5No won
Tobias Harris: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Pistons (-14.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event