TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,446
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,445

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,446 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes49c4,938$2,434 inLost-$2,434.0520155.7%112 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed No51c2,594$1,323 inWon+$1,270.941,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No50c1,762$886 inWon+$875.331,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked No50c333$167 inWon+$166.524949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed No47c169.08$79 inWon+$90.0712347.2%58 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No52c151.43$78 inWon+$73.285449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ca6…2aa3backed Yes58c111.09$64 inLost-$63.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05e0…e2cbbacked No50c100.16$50 inWon+$50.167153.5%38 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Yes44c72.72$32 inLost-$31.9984342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4388…9ce4backed No56c70.93$40 inWon+$31.2119952.3%104 W · 95 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No51c50$26 inWon+$24.4633049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4480…8c0ebacked Yes49c40.82$20 inLost-$2010351.5%53 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x085b…ab9fbacked Yes43c31.36$14 inLost-$13.559941.4%41 W · 58 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4078…7d91backed Yes49c30.61$15 inLost-$155540%22 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed No43c30$13 inWon+$17.133556.7%190 W · 145 L+26.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No57c25.6$15 inWon+$11.0619555.4%108 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3988…7ae9backed No49c23.27$11 inWon+$11.87147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x375f…b494backed Yes50c20.38$10 inLost-$10.192646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed No51c20$10 inWon+$9.841050.7%208 W · 202 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbbc…3122backed Yes50c20$10 inLost-$107953.2%42 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.