NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0ae9ff8678990e695e1f7eb89c1c6c2c03a8aadf59f7cb822fc81ea261a5598
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Pistons, Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27d2…a66cbacked Cavaliers | 64c | 2,600$1,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…8d9bbacked Cavaliers | 65c | 1,543$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.32 | 203 | 52.7%107 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pistons | 36c | 1,400$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pistons | 36c | 1,061$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.88 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6170…f3fdbacked Pistons | 39c | 1,026$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Cavaliers | 62c | 991.95$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.94 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Cavaliers | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.67 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Pistons | 17c | 768.21$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.58 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Pistons | 36c | 706.02$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.17 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pistons | 8c | 694.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f9…3c2dbacked Pistons | 38c | 530$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.4 | 186 | 43.5%81 W · 105 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Pistons | 15c | 370.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…7b69backed Pistons | 37c | 365.41$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…160cbacked Cavaliers | 64c | 334.64$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.47 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…aa08backed Cavaliers | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Pistons | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 290 | 40.3%117 W · 173 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde3d…6b1fbacked Pistons | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…cf7cbacked Cavaliers | 64c | 257.81$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.81 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Pistons | 36c | 249.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Cavaliers | 61c | 223.35$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.11 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14bc…3904backed Pistons | 38c | 217.42$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Pistons | 36c | 172.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Pistons | 29c | 149$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 931 | 48.4%451 W · 480 L | +34.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Cavaliers | 63c | 140$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Pistons | 35c | 137.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2d…8a1dbacked Cavaliers | 71c | 111.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +141.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf5…af68backed Cavaliers | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Pistons | 29c | 103.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Pistons | 37c | 97.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 304 | 48.4%147 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cavaliers | 64c | 96.83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed Pistons | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Pistons | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 405 | 48.4%196 W · 209 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…98a7backed Cavaliers | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…199bbacked Pistons | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf89…0fb1backed Pistons | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Cavaliers | 62c | 42.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Pistons | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Pistons | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Pistons | 35c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 186 | 53.2%99 W · 87 L | +9.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x230b…c2c4backed Pistons | 36c | 33.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66da…69b0backed Pistons | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…0783backed Cavaliers | 65c | 18.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Ausar Thompson: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Cavaliers vs. PistonsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 100.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 207.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 210.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5Over won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-14.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Tobias Harris: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.