NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 207.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e5a27d192f980da01f4d902714e39e69cc34bd9af329ae0486f6024d7002584
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 55c | 15,134$8,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,385.58 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 45c | 9,861$4,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,463.95 | 649 | 48.2%313 W · 336 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Over | 45c | 4,700$2,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,585 | 201 | 55.7%112 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca9…ea67backed Over | 45c | 4,515$2,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,483.49 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…c596backed Over | 45c | 4,046$1,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,225.3 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 3,945$2,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,169.9 | 552 | 51.3%283 W · 269 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650.3 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 52c | 2,878$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.36 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 55c | 2,555$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.95 | 620 | 51.1%317 W · 303 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 2,305$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.58 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Over | 49c | 2,049$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.32 | 524 | 61.6%323 W · 201 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Under | 57c | 2,043$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.56 | 156 | 44.9%70 W · 86 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 43c | 1,661$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.27 | 663 | 52.6%349 W · 314 L | +30.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49d…ff91backed Over | 45c | 1,620$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.56 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked Over | 45c | 1,615$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.27 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…3248backed Over | 72c | 1,319$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.44 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 71c | 1,211$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.34 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…b3b4backed Under | 56c | 1,180$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.83 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 57c | 900$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d9…27a3backed Over | 45c | 821.33$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 78c | 815.2$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.75 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 55c | 613.18$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.25 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Under | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 56c | 566.9$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.99 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Under | 57c | 412.28$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 178 | 48.3%86 W · 92 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…c6debacked Over | 49c | 314.78$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Under | 57c | 252.42$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.88 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Over | 44c | 227$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.12 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 43c | 226.55$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.19 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…63fcbacked Over | 43c | 200.25$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.81 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 56c | 200.2$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.11 | 600 | 49.8%299 W · 301 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc6…095fbacked Over | 46c | 196$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 43c | 172$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.69 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0f…38e7backed Under | 56c | 167.86$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 55c | 166.81$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.03 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 56c | 116.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbb…5503backed Over | 45c | 102.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a75…e444backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x838d…3cbdbacked Over | 61c | 98.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 51c | 98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6170…03bdbacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…9218backed Over | 43c | 91.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…ca29backed Under | 55c | 85.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Under | 55c | 82.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a1…ed3dbacked Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Over | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Under | 56c | 67.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Over | 48c | 61.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 405 | 48.4%196 W · 209 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1528…b976backed Under | 50c | 59.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…e891backed Over | 45c | 57.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Over | 43c | 54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 161 | 50.9%82 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3582…88f2backed Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab40…42aabacked Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 304 | 48.4%147 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 52c | 49.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed Under | 52c | 47.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 45c | 42.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 256 | 51.2%131 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 42c | 41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 931 | 48.4%451 W · 480 L | +34.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Under | 55c | 40.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Over | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…ecc5backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +6.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5d16…821abacked Over | 45c | 34.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 46c | 31.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 163 | 69.9%114 W · 49 L | +18.6wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Over | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 249 | 36.9%92 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7790…427abacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbf…388ebacked Under | 55c | 28.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…44ebbacked Under | 53c | 28.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8582…40cebacked Under | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Under | 53c | 23.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 73c | 22.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3e…7cd1backed Under | 53c | 20.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 207.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Ausar Thompson: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Cavaliers vs. PistonsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 100.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 210.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5Over won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-14.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Cavaliers won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Tobias Harris: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.