NBA · resolved market
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9bd5f0d33f9d04477010207fdccfcf16b2008b7fcac418ea36f03986d368249
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 49c | 14,018$6,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,822.02 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 46c | 10,509$4,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,679.93 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 46c | 2,597$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,411.7 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…80c3backed Yes | 56c | 1,945$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.78 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 44c | 1,843$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.03 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf887…db68backed Yes | 55c | 1,037$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed No | 45c | 921.46$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.8 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…73fdbacked Yes | 54c | 744.08$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.8 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 53c | 620$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.6 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Yes | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…b331backed No | 45c | 499.93$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.96 | 398 | 64.3%256 W · 142 L | +33.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked No | 46c | 444$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.76 | 249 | 49%122 W · 127 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 47c | 443.95$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.29 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked No | 46c | 260.87$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.87 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed Yes | 53c | 231.38$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.34 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 47c | 214.97$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.93 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed No | 50c | 190$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29db…19c3backed Yes | 53c | 186.79$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes | 54c | 183.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 300 | 55.7%167 W · 133 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…a91ebacked Yes | 55c | 182.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c4…a40abacked Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…b58ebacked Yes | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 107 | 25.2%27 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6bf…9ac0backed Yes | 56c | 85.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 42c | 85.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4f…2510backed Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c43…31c1backed Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 120 | 44.2%53 W · 67 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff4…8720backed No | 58c | 51.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…f611backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Yes | 42c | 43.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…4f4bbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 46c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce4b…3c4fbacked Yes | 29c | 38.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed No | 55c | 36.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 188 | 53.7%101 W · 87 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x648f…4b36backed No | 76c | 36.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10c…e7e2backed Yes | 45c | 34.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 47c | 29.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13db…2523backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…34a1backed No | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes | 53c | 21.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…77c8backed No | 50c | 20.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Ausar Thompson: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Cavaliers vs. PistonsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 100.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 207.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 210.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5Over won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-14.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Cavaliers won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Tobias Harris: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.