TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-11.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Pistons, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,140
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,766

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,140 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Pistons4c5,246$202 inLost-$201.798,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Pistons28c2,387$668 inLost-$668.274825%12 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Pistons28c1,400$392 inLost-$3921,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e4…6f6bbacked Cavaliers72c1,100$792 inWon+$3081957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e05…1b97backed Cavaliers72c1,070$771 inWon+$299.727356.2%41 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc5b…3f6abacked Cavaliers76c1,000$760 inWon+$24011946.2%55 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Pistons2c972$19 inLost-$18.5893148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Cavaliers72c814.29$586 inWon+$2285352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Cavaliers72c584.44$421 inWon+$163.6464948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers72c570$410 inWon+$159.66,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Cavaliers71c561.67$399 inWon+$162.8816743.7%73 W · 94 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc04…1c43backed Pistons28c464.29$130 inLost-$13010548.6%51 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Cavaliers72c418.06$301 inWon+$117.0618448.9%90 W · 94 L-13.3wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x23f9…3c2dbacked Pistons29c350$102 inLost-$101.518643.5%81 W · 105 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Pistons28c300$84 inLost-$8462051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d9d…992bbacked Pistons29c180.86$52 inLost-$52.4511834.7%41 W · 77 L-9.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Pistons28c178.57$50 inLost-$507342.5%31 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe80f…b81bbacked Cavaliers75c133.33$100 inWon+$33.337562.7%47 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd4…5aaebacked Cavaliers72c100$72 inWon+$281947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc392…595dbacked Pistons50c60$30 inLost-$3040548.4%196 W · 209 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x085b…ab9fbacked Cavaliers50c50$25 inWon+$259941.4%41 W · 58 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Pistons28c50$14 inLost-$1430448.4%147 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c0d…a667backed Cavaliers71c40$28 inWon+$11.61369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+33.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x422f…da1abacked Cavaliers73c19.18$14 inWon+$5.186473.4%47 W · 17 L+8.2wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+16.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Cavaliers72c18$13 inWon+$5.041,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.