NBA · resolved market
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bc77dbeb74078b898e39f1310a1dc9236df1e6f2165d38d2728e8ff1e21aee5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 53c | 4,153$2,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,938.13 | 201 | 55.7%112 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked No | 47c | 1,063$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 277 | 46.6%129 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.17 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 47c | 694.03$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.19 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…2f8bbacked Yes | 54c | 550.37$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.37 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed No | 46c | 463.04$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 47c | 443.98$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.67 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked No | 46c | 320$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.2 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 46c | 312.27$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.53 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed No | 47c | 210.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 46c | 189.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.39 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…4c99backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked No | 45c | 171.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Yes | 55c | 168.75$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.94 | 219 | 50.2%110 W · 109 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Yes | 54c | 105.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d16…821abacked Yes | 54c | 100.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…5b93backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 48c | 89.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Yes | 53c | 75.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed No | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed No | 46c | 62.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed8…3affbacked No | 53c | 56.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 141 | 70.9%100 W · 41 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…08e3backed Yes | 53c | 37.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 47c | 37.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…3122backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Yes | 46c | 32.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 317 | 48.9%155 W · 162 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 45c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 54c | 25.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes | 53c | 21.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Ausar Thompson: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Cavaliers vs. PistonsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 100.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 207.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 210.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5Over won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-14.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Cavaliers won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Tobias Harris: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.