Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Japan (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac25b5f090da8ecb15ca5ba23b17f3de2f8d90633d33a6c771fa0432a9d3ed11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tunisiaof Japan, Tunisia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94d7…bef5backed Japan | 6c | 55,917$3,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,130.76 | 263 | 20.5%54 W · 209 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f8…2062backed Japan | 7c | 6,030$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.57 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Japan | 25c | 2,400$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 301 | 42.5%128 W · 173 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Japan | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…593dbacked Japan | 6c | 1,647$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Japan | 10c | 1,444$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.25 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…9945backed Japan | 7c | 1,424$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 205 | 47.3%97 W · 108 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9254…3af8backed Japan | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 172 | 11%19 W · 153 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7e…3de7backed Japan | 1c | 1,040$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae76…2763backed Japan | 4c | 1,030$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 186 | 26.3%49 W · 137 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…51f2backed Japan | 6c | 806.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…ae13backed Japan | 8c | 710.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd7…a0cebacked Japan | 4c | 633.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9a…2a64backed Japan | 26c | 617.46$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.54 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Japan | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 471 | 27.8%131 W · 340 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Japan | 6c | 599.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 1,438 | 40.1%576 W · 862 L | -40.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Japan | 7c | 564.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 1,354 | 38.9%527 W · 827 L | -55.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…2f4dbacked Japan | 6c | 543.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Japan | 4c | 513.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Japan | 4c | 512.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 31.4%43 W · 94 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Japan | 13c | 495.46$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Japan | 7c | 445.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 155 | 22.6%35 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Japan | 3c | 405$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Japan | 10c | 401.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 1,380 | 40.2%555 W · 825 L | -51.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…48b1backed Japan | 14c | 359.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 336 | 41.7%140 W · 196 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Japan | 28c | 270$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 524 | 55%288 W · 236 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Tunisia | 77c | 242.15$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…231cbacked Japan | 8c | 235.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…6dd8backed Japan | 8c | 213.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a88…0296backed Japan | 6c | 206.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d323backed Japan | 14c | 175.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…9182backed Japan | 22c | 134.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 46.4%70 W · 81 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1839…4d0dbacked Japan | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…9d60backed Japan | 28c | 107.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Japan | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…7750backed Japan | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Japan | 24c | 82.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 248 | 25.8%64 W · 184 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…0ec5backed Japan | 18c | 76.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…5e19backed Japan | 25c | 72.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…7932backed Japan | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 219 | 39.3%86 W · 133 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4942…3558backed Japan | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…72f4backed Japan | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…eff9backed Tunisia | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 257 | 53.3%137 W · 120 L | +23.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Tunisia | 80c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 855 | 50.6%433 W · 422 L | +54.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Japan (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Japan (-1.5)Japan won
- Spread: Japan (-2.5)Japan won
- Spread: Japan (-3.5)Japan won
- Spread: Japan (-5.5)Tunisia won
- Spread: Tunisia (-1.5)Japan won
- Spread: Tunisia (-2.5)Japan won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5Over won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5Over won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5Over won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5Over won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5Over won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5Over won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5Over won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5Under won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5Under won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5Under won
- Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.