TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x4726…ff2b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
58
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Premier League, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 51 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT4930.6%15 W · 34 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$170
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+205.3%+$123.21
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
France vs. England: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will France vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+113.1%+$169.72
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.91
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+121%+$24.2
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$76.36
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+92.4%+$34.28
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked United States · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Portugal vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$54.17
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)backed Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Mexico vs. England: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Ligalast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Elche CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie Alast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.