TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x525e…624c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
30
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Bundesliga, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Bundesliga at 53 out of 100; worst La Liga at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT1526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+42.9%+$42.86
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+400%+$517.16
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+614.3%+$899.54
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$68.97
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$33.58
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$120
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$116.32
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$82.6
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+51.5%+$25.76
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$35
All 15 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-34.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+31.6%+$31.58
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$80
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked Weibo Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+63.9%+$25.57
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+270.4%+$54.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffsbacked AM Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+45.2%+$73.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+34.8%+$34.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.