TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xdd2e…5c30

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
50
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 53 out of 100; worst NHL at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 23, 2025, EST4238.1%16 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Avalanche vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$37.65
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiensbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$109.01
Devils vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+104.1%+$12.31
Senators vs. Sharksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$158.55
Oilers vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$53.27
Blues vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$47.56
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wingsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$39.64
Bruins vs. Kingsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+177.8%+$255.45
Hurricanes vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$193.24
Blackhawks vs. Sabresbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$125.85
Wild vs. Penguinsbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+112.8%+$135.22
Senators vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$26.75
Stars vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$89.19
Golden Knights vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$26.75
Rangers vs. Avalanchebacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$327Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$327.02
Oilers vs. Lightningbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$234.86
Islanders vs. Red Wingsbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+122.2%+$196.22
Capitals vs. Canadiensbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+117.4%+$158.21
Devils vs. Panthersbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$110.48
Bruins vs. Ducksbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$53.51
Hurricanes vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+156.4%+$91.44
Flames vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+96.1%+$72.36
Islanders vs. Starsbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+156.4%+$105.39
Blues vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+92.3%+$56.71
Kraken vs. Red Wingsbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$52.52
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+112.8%+$27.93
Raptors vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$86.21
Thunder vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$64.41
Grizzlies vs. Cavaliersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$91.17
All 4 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+55%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 15, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Clemson vs. Louisvillebacked Louisville · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$319Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$319.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$16.41
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.