TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,249
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,196

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,249 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2978…b511backed Yes46c390.35$180 inLost-$1807835.9%28 W · 50 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No47c251.8$117 inWon+$134.3633049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6a0…2212backed Yes60c139.59$84 inLost-$843551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+19%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No44c129$57 inWon+$72.2465762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No40c118.07$47 inWon+$70.8443752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No41c96.78$40 inWon+$57.12330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc229…331cbacked Yes60c80.25$48 inLost-$48.0620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Yes59c80$47 inLost-$47.220558.5%120 W · 85 L+19.6wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes55c58.76$33 inLost-$32.5142842.5%182 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c8…becfbacked No45c33.44$15 inWon+$18.443458.8%20 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No52c25.63$13 inWon+$12.2953842%226 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes59c20$12 inLost-$11.8541227.4%113 W · 299 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e2…59a4backed Yes64c15.63$10 inLost-$104537.8%17 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.