NBA · resolved market
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b95801ff90f880cc94a291f0b01200b11d035229bc9dbe6f983d2231c6d6507
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 49c | 999.92$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.96 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 52c | 483.91$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.52 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked No | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Yes | 48c | 270$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 52c | 212.03$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.03 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 50c | 199.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…a91ebacked No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…b2ebbacked Yes | 75c | 176.15$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 140 | 49.3%69 W · 71 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 48c | 160$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x743c…db89backed No | 51c | 159.33$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked No | 52c | 115.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c9…5e53backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 305 | 44.6%136 W · 169 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…f611backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67f3…d3e7backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe538…c28bbacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.1wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 48c | 96.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 51c | 79.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…08e3backed No | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39b…486cbacked Yes | 50c | 78.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Yes | 49c | 71.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed No | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c43…31c1backed No | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 120 | 44.2%53 W · 67 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 50c | 54.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e79…9076backed No | 55c | 54.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 209 | 51.7%108 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 57c | 48.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 43c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…e44bbacked Yes | 50c | 44.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked Yes | 45c | 43.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x378d…18f8backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…1025backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…411fbacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 50cpaid | -76%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfb…550cbacked No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 48c | 26.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…4f4bbacked Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…becfbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Dean Wade: Points O/U 0.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- James Harden: Points O/U 19.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5No won
- OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Knicks (-14.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Knicks (-17.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-8.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.