NBA · resolved market
James Harden: Points O/U 19.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfa0e7839d1e5fd3effe7bce26ac4f1a03046c43b741c135ab5aa17c16b0ecc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 45c | 551.36$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.11 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked No | 55c | 310.06$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.06 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 52c | 302.08$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…a426backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 61c | 194.79$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.15 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…761bbacked Yes | 52c | 190$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -15.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781d…201bbacked No | 55c | 182.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.43 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4f…2510backed Yes | 50c | 169.62$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad1a…283ebacked Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 50c | 131.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 50c | 109.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…3122backed Yes | 49c | 101.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…0188backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…9064backed Yes | 50c | 99.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 48c | 73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 447 | 47%210 W · 237 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked No | 48c | 69.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Yes | 50c | 60.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 74c | 60.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 50c | 58.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…08e3backed No | 54c | 55.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd755…61a1backed Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Yes | 41c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 205 | 58.5%120 W · 85 L | +19.6wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd70c…43eabacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5be1…3371backed Yes | 50c | 49.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 65c | 46.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 538 | 42%226 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 53c | 39.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13db…2523backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…fd60backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 78c | 33.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 428 | 42.5%182 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…becfbacked Yes | 50c | 30.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes | 50c | 30.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 51c | 29.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 50c | 25.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…9291backed No | 60c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- James Harden: Points O/U 19.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Dean Wade: Points O/U 0.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5No won
- OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Knicks (-14.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Knicks (-17.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-8.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.