TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$842,465
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$585,450

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $842,465 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x015c…f81cbacked Yes0c214,937$645 inLost-$644.8140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07a7…94e6backed Yes0c62,397$187 inLost-$187.1930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf49c…9786backed Yes0c55,477$159 inLost-$159.431529.9%15 W · 137 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-49.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae51…0d08backed Yes0c25,000$100 inLost-$1001315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-47.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x281f…3e7ebacked Yes0c22,509$109 inLost-$1094219%8 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c15,354$100 inLost-$100.028,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18d4…1d3abacked Yes0c13,000$58 inLost-$57.76921.7%15 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-52.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb8…56ecbacked Yes0c11,408$48 inLost-$48.169345.2%42 W · 51 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1ed…8168backed Yes1c8,333$50 inLost-$5010149.5%50 W · 51 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa63f…4f7bbacked Yes0c7,500$30 inLost-$303116.1%5 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-73%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4061…dde5backed Yes0c7,500$15 inLost-$1515722.3%35 W · 122 L+0.7wins0.00per pick22cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6da…7b39backed Yes0c7,399$30 inLost-$3080%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcc…0061backed Yes1c6,546$61 inLost-$61.240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37bc…67c3backed Yes1c5,460$46 inLost-$46.3350%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa458…7141backed Yes1c5,000$40 inLost-$4070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5de1…c205backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost-$201136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick14cpaid+63.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes1c4,400$22 inLost-$221,01931.6%322 W · 697 L-10.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa56f…149bbacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc499…f793backed Yes1c2,273$20 inLost-$207843.6%34 W · 44 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5797…c232backed Yes1c2,191$20 inLost-$205927.1%16 W · 43 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f7b…e79fbacked Yes1c2,000$28 inLost-$27.87812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-83.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fa8…d720backed Yes1c1,712$11 inLost-$11608.3%5 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-72%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bde…c804backed Yes1c1,401$10 inLost-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 51 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.