Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d4e8d2d25f1826c0bd0f0b66948bfd612e6014717d58ac79606ba1256fa57d1

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $404,226
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $54,296

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $404,226 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes	0c	68,834$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.83	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x799d…d9abbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf49c…9786backed Yes	1c	20,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	152	9.9%15 W · 137 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7170…0534backed Yes	2c	12,500$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	+3.3wins	+0.09per pick	21cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf94b…a36abacked Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5e4…f534backed Yes	1c	10,886$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.85	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes	1c	10,622$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.18	43	14%6 W · 37 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+41%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	1c	10,176$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.46	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	0c	10,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	263	30%79 W · 184 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20c6…45aebacked Yes	5c	9,265$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	127	36.2%46 W · 81 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes	1c	8,875$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.68	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1636…2e05backed Yes	3c	7,421$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e6…7aa6backed Yes	0c	6,579$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.25	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf93…e5e9backed Yes	5c	6,400$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.73	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+6.3wins	+0.17per pick	34cpaid	+41%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	1c	6,167$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.5	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	-83.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Yes	4c	5,000$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176	58	39.7%23 W · 35 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes	4c	4,931$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.58	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa241…45f7backed Yes	1c	4,547$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbc…30a4backed Yes	5c	3,542$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.51	67	20.9%14 W · 53 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe97…96ebbacked Yes	1c	3,069$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.81	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8188…0667backed Yes	3c	3,000$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes	1c	2,768$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.62	185	45.9%85 W · 100 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3231…a113backed Yes	4c	2,703$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9905…add3backed Yes	4c	2,632$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	40	25%10 W · 30 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x798e…1614backed Yes	4c	2,625$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.14	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fa8…d720backed Yes	2c	2,545$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-72%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4061…dde5backed Yes	1c	2,536$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	157	22.3%35 W · 122 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2722…7e87backed Yes	4c	2,500$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.41	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	2,275$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.92	202	1.5%3 W · 199 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b6…6be8backed Yes	4c	2,040$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x43ac…efa9backed Yes	1c	1,800$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4498…078dbacked Yes	1c	1,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-57.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18d4…1d3abacked Yes	2c	1,371$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.75	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41da…0b58backed Yes	4c	1,289$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	62	8.1%5 W · 57 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-73.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	4c	1,273$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.09	792	31.1%246 W · 546 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbdd…c26abacked Yes	4c	1,250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	131	48.1%63 W · 68 L	+10.6wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc29…f1bbbacked Yes	3c	1,229$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.45	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-89.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes	3c	1,037$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.64	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3714…ef45backed Yes	3c	1,024$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0dba…c1a7backed Yes	4c	1,005$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	+3.8wins	+0.11per pick	19cpaid	+79.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb94c…3c05backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	50	40%20 W · 30 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes	4c	999.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	97	52.6%51 W · 46 L	+9.0wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes	3c	999.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	209	32.5%68 W · 141 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	4c	829.32$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.56	438	35.8%157 W · 281 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48f1…4d49backed Yes	4c	817.89$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.08	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c12…91fcbacked Yes	1c	800$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	63	71.4%45 W · 18 L	+9.4wins	+0.15per pick	56cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8930…9ac8backed Yes	2c	762.18$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9637…a576backed Yes	3c	757.58$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	451	20.6%93 W · 358 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe3…79a0backed Yes	4c	718.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.34	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a9d…f5e7backed Yes	4c	694.44$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-3.5wins	-0.23per pick	30cpaid	-58.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8951…6ceebacked Yes	3c	600$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd0f…e262backed Yes	4c	588.7$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7be7…6f9dbacked Yes	3c	588.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85d3…0698backed Yes	4c	556.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.38	60	43.3%26 W · 34 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6110…5d2ebacked Yes	4c	526.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	183	40.4%74 W · 109 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed Yes	5c	500$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	135	30.4%41 W · 94 L	-16.4wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2d7b…5397backed Yes	4c	499.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bf4…2934backed Yes	4c	485.25$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x517b…be02backed Yes	4c	468.88$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	+3.4wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf870…ae68backed Yes	3c	454.55$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	454.16$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.61	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x569b…c66ebacked Yes	3c	450$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	144	22.2%32 W · 112 L	-10.5wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb514…09e6backed Yes	3c	357.14$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+1.0wins	+0.09per pick	10cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f8d…6790backed Yes	4c	340$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.92	76	50%38 W · 38 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x59dc…2a03backed Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	245	33.9%83 W · 162 L	+5.4wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes	4c	277.47$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.58	181	39.8%72 W · 109 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3003…dd1bbacked Yes	4c	255$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfce0…f873backed Yes	6c	242.31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 51 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event