Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74cff4f2fa829c29f677232157c2793bb8b1ee836c9978ffe9e426182cc7244f

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $512,979
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $93,709

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $512,979 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1be7…a6e3backed Yes	1c	46,814$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$554.92	103	26.2%27 W · 76 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2362…2ec5backed Yes	0c	40,000$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119	44	2.3%1 W · 43 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-96.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf93…e5e9backed Yes	1c	33,936$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.55	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+6.3wins	+0.17per pick	34cpaid	+41%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Yes	2c	29,739$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	82	14.6%12 W · 70 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x890d…3afcbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x576f…ed2cbacked Yes	0c	18,180$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.36	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	17,420$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.42	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-83.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf49c…9786backed Yes	1c	15,000$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	152	9.9%15 W · 137 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6700…acfebacked Yes	0c	14,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	66	15.2%10 W · 56 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes	1c	13,318$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.54	61	27.9%17 W · 44 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	0c	12,637$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.64	263	30%79 W · 184 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes	0c	10,900$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.7	149	20.8%31 W · 118 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18d4…1d3abacked Yes	1c	10,000$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.64	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5777…3e40backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes	1c	8,808$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.53	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcafc…09ffbacked Yes	2c	8,333$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5513…2e2bbacked Yes	1c	7,362$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.71	75	42.7%32 W · 43 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ed…7f84backed Yes	1c	6,671$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	45cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6faf…de48backed Yes	1c	6,667$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	202	24.8%50 W · 152 L	-15.8wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x16dd…adf5backed Yes	1c	6,099$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.11	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec6c…2cb7backed Yes	1c	5,859$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.67	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	2c	5,774$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.08	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8798…76cebacked Yes	1c	5,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	80	13.8%11 W · 69 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x78a4…4eeebacked Yes	2c	4,730$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.34	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9538…fe3cbacked Yes	1c	4,057$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaea…1b60backed Yes	1c	3,846$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fa8…d720backed Yes	1c	3,762$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.67	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-72%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9449…d829backed Yes	1c	3,485$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.88	67	19.4%13 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+63.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac36…08dabacked Yes	2c	3,333$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-44%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7be7…6f9dbacked Yes	2c	3,128$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3793…cf49backed Yes	2c	3,111$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.04	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43ac…efa9backed Yes	1c	2,785$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.07	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73ed…310ebacked Yes	2c	2,756$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.6	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	1c	2,523$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.06	792	31.1%246 W · 546 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa335…5fb3backed Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca0…cb82backed Yes	1c	1,929$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	179	33.5%60 W · 119 L	-7.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb725…ed79backed Yes	1c	1,800$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdff7…94d5backed Yes	1c	1,692$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	64	42.2%27 W · 37 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39a8…7d57backed Yes	2c	1,492$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.19	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb94c…3c05backed Yes	1c	1,490$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.3	50	40%20 W · 30 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae27…e786backed Yes	2c	1,449$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11db…20c8backed Yes	1c	1,400$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes	1c	1,378$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.91	1,019	31.6%322 W · 697 L	-10.2wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f9…8739backed Yes	1c	1,237$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.17	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	16cpaid	-55.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,213$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.58	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x937d…b9c9backed Yes	2c	1,198$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.37	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Yes	1c	1,112$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.24	54	1.9%1 W · 53 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	6cpaid	-92.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes	1c	1,071$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x287e…cbf5backed Yes	1c	1,071$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x281f…3e7ebacked Yes	2c	1,021$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	42	19%8 W · 34 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb99d…e4e5backed Yes	2c	1,002$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	78	51.3%40 W · 38 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd121…99debacked Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4265…3741backed Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	+4.0wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3de2…d073backed Yes	1c	979.73$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d77…af31backed Yes	2c	960$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fd3…ac03backed Yes	2c	669$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-3.0wins	-0.16per pick	32cpaid	-71.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f8c…3a6ebacked Yes	2c	517.87$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 51 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event